Longwood Lancers

Women's · Big South Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Virginia Union · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-14

Net rating−13.6Rank 275 of 363 · offence 290, defence 252

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-14 (11 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 19%
Wins the conference tournament: 16%
Average seed if in the field: 15.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field16%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Apprentice Schoolnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 96-27
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Virginia Unionnot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	at Charlotterank 199	Away	21%	60-71	—
Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET	at Pennsylvaniarank 99	Away	6%	56-77	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 16% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: at CharlotteA win: 16% · a loss: 16%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at PennsylvaniaA win: 16% · a loss: 16%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nal'La BennettG · transfer from Stony Brook	1	25.0	12.0	2.0	1.0	−3.9	−0.8
Idaysia MercerG	1	21.0	5.0	1.0	4.0	−2.5	−0.1
Maddy LittleG	1	20.0	9.0	3.0	2.0	−2.5	−0.1
McKenna HoytF	1	20.0	13.0	4.0	2.0	−2.5	−0.1
McKayla HosleyF · transfer from GA Southern	1	19.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.2
Kayla WashingtonG	1	18.0	10.0	6.0	1.0	−3.5	−0.5
London HarveyF	1	18.0	10.0	16.0	0.0	−3.9	−0.6
Shakira GreshamG	1	17.0	8.0	6.0	3.0	−2.4	−0.1
Jesstynie ScottG	1	17.0	8.0	4.0	6.0	+0.3	+0.8
Nalani SimmonsG	1	15.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	−4.2	−0.6
Alary BellF	1	10.0	8.0	4.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 139	44.6%rank 134	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 151	23.9%rank 128	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 140	33.5%rank 137	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 137	20.4%rank 144	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −13.6
Last season's net rating: −5.2
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 82.1 (rank 290)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.7 (rank 252)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.7 (rank 14)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big South Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	High Point	2-0	0-0	−6.2	87.2	93.4	197
2	Radford	1-1	0-0	−10.7	83.5	94.2	237
3	Longwood	1-0	0-0	−13.6	82.1	95.7	275
4	South Carolina Upstate	1-1	0-0	−17.8	78.0	95.8	306
5	Winthrop	1-0	0-0	−20.2	79.3	99.5	330
6	Charleston Southern	0-1	0-0	−23.0	76.9	99.9	340
7	Gardner-Webb	0-0	0-0	−23.2	77.7	100.9	341
8	UNC Asheville	1-0	0-0	−26.7	74.2	100.9	351
9	Presbyterian	0-2	0-0	−31.2	73.2	104.4	360