UTSA Roadrunners
Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-14
Net rating+4.2Rank 104 of 363 · offence 147, defence 73
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-14 (10 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 12%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 11%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field15%
- Round of 322%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov9:30 PM ET | at UNLVrank 122 | Away | 42% | 66-68 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov4 PM ET | at San Diego Staterank 54 | Away | 16% | 57-72 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov12 PM ET | vs Incarnate Wordrank 213 | Home | 86% | 72-56 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at UNLVA win: 16% · a loss: 15%+1 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at San Diego StateA win: 20% · a loss: 15%+5 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Incarnate WordA win: 15% · a loss: 16%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 137 | 44.7%rank 132 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 144 | 23.8%rank 126 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.5%rank 135 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.5%rank 127 | 20.5%rank 140 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +4.2
- Last season's net rating
- +6.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 52%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.6
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 90.8 (rank 147)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 86.6 (rank 73)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.2 (rank 286)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.6 | 94.9 | 82.3 | 69 |
| 2 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.5 | 99.4 | 88.9 | 75 |
| 3 | UTSA | 0-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 90.8 | 86.6 | 104 |
| 4 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.7 | 90.3 | 87.5 | 115 |
| 5 | North Texas | 1-1 | 0-0 | +2.2 | 91.9 | 89.6 | 119 |
| 6 | Temple | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.3 | 93.4 | 92.1 | 129 |
| 7 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 88.0 | 90.2 | 167 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 88.5 | 91.3 | 169 |
| 9 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 87.2 | 92.1 | 189 |
| 10 | Charlotte | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 89.3 | 94.6 | 191 |
| 11 | UAB | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 87.4 | 95.7 | 212 |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 84.9 | 93.5 | 217 |
| 13 | Wichita State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 78.4 | 92.5 | 279 |