Rice Owls

Women's · American Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Murray St · Fri 6 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Rice55%45%Murray St

Projected 71-69 · Game page

Makes the tournament52%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 26-7

Net rating+12.5Rank 69 of 363 · offence 97, defence 38

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-7 (21 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 45%
Wins the conference tournament: 34%
Average seed if in the field: 10.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field52%
Round of 3212%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Houston Christianrank 306	Home	98%	91-62	W 72-34	Right
Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Murray Staterank 73	Neutral	55%	71-69	—
Sun 8 Nov2:30 PM ET	at Richmondrank 64	Away	33%	64-69	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	vs Texas Southernrank 363	Home	100%	87-42	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 52% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Murray StateA win: 55% · a loss: 49%+6 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at RichmondA win: 59% · a loss: 50%+9 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Aniah AlexisG	1	31.0	5.0	7.0	3.0	+3.4	+3.1
Hailey AdamsG	1	30.0	4.0	16.0	3.0	+4.7	+3.8
Louann BattistonG	1	29.0	11.0	2.0	8.0	+1.7	+2.1
Jordin BlackmonG	1	22.0	16.0	1.0	2.0	+1.3	+1.4
Myah HazeltonC	1	21.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+0.4	+1.0
Victoria FloresG	1	20.0	19.0	5.0	1.0	+4.0	+2.3
Reychel DouglasG · transfer from Alabama	1	15.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	+3.0	+1.4
Mylee GuinnG	1	15.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+2.1	+1.2
Kaylen Sta. MariaG	1	7.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.2
Layla ConleyG	1	6.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	+1.6	+0.4
Pace RickardG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 103	41.9%rank 8	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.4%rank 107	24.3%rank 86	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.7%rank 355	30.9%rank 15	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.4%rank 289	23.2%rank 341	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +10.7 points a game (they shot 6.2%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.8
Last season's net rating: +15.3
Last season's minutes returning: 68%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.9
Change since preseason: +0.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 95.0 (rank 97)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 82.4 (rank 38)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.3 (rank 168)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −17.8 (rank 232)

American Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Rice	1-0	0-0	+12.5	95.0	82.4	69
2	South Florida	1-0	0-0	+10.5	99.4	89.0	75
3	UTSA	0-0	0-0	+4.2	90.9	86.7	104
4	Tulane	1-0	0-0	+2.7	90.3	87.6	115
5	North Texas	1-1	0-0	+2.3	92.0	89.7	119
6	Temple	0-1	0-0	+1.3	93.5	92.1	129
7	East Carolina	1-0	0-0	−2.3	88.1	90.3	167
8	Tulsa	0-1	0-0	−2.8	88.6	91.4	171
9	Memphis	1-0	0-0	−4.9	87.3	92.2	189
10	Charlotte	0-1	0-0	−5.3	89.4	94.7	191
11	UAB	1-0	0-0	−8.3	87.5	95.8	213
12	Florida Atlantic	0-1	0-0	−8.6	85.0	93.6	217
13	Wichita State	0-1	0-0	−14.0	78.5	92.5	279