South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Women's · Summit League · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Northern Iowa · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Northern Iowa10%90%S Dakota St

Projected 77-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament67%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 25-8

Net rating+17.6Rank 44 of 363 · offence 35, defence 71

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-8 (21 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-1
Wins or shares the conference title: 72%
Wins the conference tournament: 57%
Average seed if in the field: 10.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field67%
Round of 3220%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Creightonrank 46	Home	74%	87-79	L 71-73	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Northern Iowarank 111	Home	90%	77-60	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	at Texasrank 10	Away	7%	62-82	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 67% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Northern IowaA win: 67% · a loss: 65%+3 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at TexasA win: 71% · a loss: 67%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Katie VaseckaG	1	33.0	4.0	4.0	3.0	+1.9	+2.4
Brooklyn MeyerF	1	30.0	12.0	6.0	2.0	+12.2	+7.8
Emilee FoxG	1	29.0	14.0	2.0	4.0	+3.5	+3.0
Mahli AbdouchG	1	23.0	5.0	1.0	3.0	+3.0	+2.2
Audrey ShindelarG	1	22.0	15.0	2.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.4
Claire SheppardF	1	21.0	7.0	8.0	1.0	+0.3	+0.9
Hadley ThulG	1	21.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+2.7	+1.8
Hilary BehrensF	1	11.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+2.8	+1.0
Maggie HartwigF	1	10.0	7.0	1.0	0.0	+3.7	+1.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 97	46.6%rank 332	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.3%rank 95	22.1%rank 344	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.3%rank 301	33.1%rank 110	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.1%rank 349	22.0%rank 319	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.7 expected (−0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −8.6 points a game (they shot 54.5%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +20.0
Last season's net rating: +21.8
Last season's minutes returning: 78%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −2.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 104.1 (rank 35)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.5 (rank 71)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.5 (rank 262)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +17.2 (rank 43)

Summit League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Dakota State	0-1	0-0	+17.6	104.1	86.5	44
2	North Dakota State	0-1	0-0	+13.8	100.1	86.3	65
3	South Dakota	1-0	0-0	−3.1	89.8	93.0	178
4	St. Thomas	1-1	0-0	−4.1	90.2	94.4	183
5	Oral Roberts	0-1	0-0	−8.0	90.6	98.6	211
6	Kansas City	1-0	0-0	−13.9	84.4	98.3	277
7	North Dakota	0-1	0-0	−18.4	80.2	98.6	314
8	Omaha	0-1	0-0	−18.8	79.8	98.6	317