UNC Wilmington Seahawks

Women's · Coastal Athletic Association · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs NC Central · Sat 7 Nov, 12 PM ET

NC Central37%63%UNC Wilmington

Projected 66-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 9-21

Net rating−20.9Rank 333 of 363 · offence 327, defence 322

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 9-21 (4 to 15 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-14
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Tue 3 Nov	vs Bartonnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 75-44
Sat 7 Nov12 PM ET	vs North Carolina Centralrank 332	Home	63%	66-61	—
Thu 12 Nov11:30 AM ET	at Wake Forestrank 136	Away	5%	54-77	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs North Carolina CentralA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at Wake ForestA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Loghan JohnsonG · transfer from West Virginia	1	23.0	14.0	11.0	1.0	+0.3	+1.0
Kimmie HicksG · transfer from Loyola MD	1	23.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	−5.1	−1.2
Sienna DauerG · transfer from Davidson	1	22.0	10.0	3.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.6
Promise NjokuG	1	22.0	5.0	0.0	3.0	−5.2	−1.2
Tiara ThompsonG	1	21.0	14.0	2.0	2.0	−5.1	−1.1
Ebbony WilsonG	1	17.0	6.0	0.0	1.0	−8.9	−2.1
Leah KeyesG · transfer from George Mason	1	17.0	1.0	6.0	1.0	−3.6	−0.5
Bella ToomeyF · transfer from FDU	1	16.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	−2.6	−0.1
Naylee CortesF · transfer from Charleston	1	15.0	8.0	3.0	1.0	−3.7	−0.4
Alva HägerströmG	1	14.0	0.0	3.0	1.0	−5.0	−0.7
Morgan WhiteC	1	10.0	7.0	6.0	0.0	−4.8	−0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 148	44.7%rank 141	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 167	23.9%rank 138	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 147	33.3%rank 147	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 147	20.8%rank 154	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −20.9
Last season's net rating: −21.1
Last season's minutes returning: 1%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.9
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 78.7 (rank 327)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.7 (rank 322)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.9 (rank 191)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Coastal Athletic Association by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Drexel	1-0	0-0	−0.4	91.9	92.3	146
2	Monmouth	1-0	0-0	−1.5	86.8	88.3	152
3	Charleston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	89.3	92.2	170
4	William & Mary	2-0	0-0	−4.0	87.5	91.5	183
5	Elon	1-0	0-0	−5.9	87.3	93.3	192
6	Towson	0-2	0-0	−7.0	88.0	95.0	202
7	North Carolina A&T	1-0	0-0	−10.0	84.0	94.0	233
8	Stony Brook	2-0	0-0	−11.8	86.5	98.3	250
9	Hampton	0-2	0-0	−13.0	83.9	96.9	268
10	Hofstra	0-1	0-0	−13.7	82.8	96.4	274
11	Campbell	0-2	0-0	−14.8	80.7	95.6	288
12	Northeastern	0-1	0-0	−15.3	83.6	98.9	290
13	UNC Wilmington	1-0	0-0	−20.9	78.7	99.7	333