Monmouth Hawks
Makes the tournament19%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-11
Net rating−1.5Rank 152 of 363 · offence 213, defence 92
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 23-11 (17 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 25%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 19%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field19%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Binghamtonrank 203 | Home | 50% | 76-76 | W 63-40 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov6 PM ET | vs Lehighrank 123 | Home | 55% | 63-61 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at Rutgersrank 82 | Away | 16% | 57-70 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs LehighA win: 19% · a loss: 20%−1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at RutgersA win: 19% · a loss: 19%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madalena AmaroG | 1 | 34.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | −1.4 | +0.4 |
| Gigi GambleG | 1 | 32.0 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +0.6 | +1.6 |
| Kathy KersaintG | 1 | 28.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | −0.4 | +0.9 |
| Vanessa McManusG · transfer from Cal Poly | 1 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.4 |
| Divine DibulaF | 1 | 25.0 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | +4.1 | +2.8 |
| Kellyn PreiraG | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Kailah CorreaG · transfer from Delaware | 1 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Tessa CarmanF | 1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.2 |
| Claudia XaudaroG | 1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Sanai TylerF · transfer from Bethune | 1 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.1 |
| Lexi CarnegieG | 1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.3%rank 310 | 41.6%rank 12 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.6%rank 285 | 25.0%rank 56 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.9%rank 233 | 35.2%rank 319 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 22.4%rank 45 | 22.8%rank 325 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +12.4 points a game (they shot 5.6%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.0
- Last season's net rating
- −3.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 58%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −7.2
- Change since preseason
- +5.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 86.8 (rank 213)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 88.3 (rank 92)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.2 (rank 267)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −7.2 (rank 191)
Coastal Athletic Association by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drexel | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.4 | 91.9 | 92.3 | 146 |
| 2 | Monmouth | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.5 | 86.8 | 88.3 | 152 |
| 3 | Charleston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 89.3 | 92.2 | 170 |
| 4 | William & Mary | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 87.5 | 91.5 | 183 |
| 5 | Elon | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.9 | 87.3 | 93.3 | 192 |
| 6 | Towson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.0 | 88.0 | 95.0 | 202 |
| 7 | North Carolina A&T | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.0 | 84.0 | 94.0 | 233 |
| 8 | Stony Brook | 2-0 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 86.5 | 98.3 | 250 |
| 9 | Hampton | 0-2 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 83.9 | 96.9 | 268 |
| 10 | Hofstra | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.7 | 82.8 | 96.4 | 274 |
| 11 | Campbell | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.8 | 80.7 | 95.6 | 288 |
| 12 | Northeastern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 83.6 | 98.9 | 290 |
| 13 | UNC Wilmington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −20.9 | 78.7 | 99.7 | 333 |