Who will win Villanova vs Fairfield?
The model gives Villanova a 51% chance to beat Fairfield, with a projected score of Villanova 74, Fairfield 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villanova | |||||
| BascoeG · 34 min | 23.4 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 25+ 42% | |
| HenryG · 27 min | 12.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 10+ 65% | |
| BenderF · 19 min | 8.0 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 33% | |
| JoensG · 22 min | 7.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 32% | |
 Fairfield | |||||
| L'AmoreauxG · 37 min | 20.9 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 20+ 54% | |
| AndersenF · 32 min | 14.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 15+ 45% | |
| CoeF · 25 min | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 54% | |
| McCarthyF · 18 min | 9.2 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 42% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jasmine Bascoe: Villanova 30%Fairfield 70%
The white mark is the call with her: Villanova 51%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Villanova without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova | ||||
| Jasmine Bascoe | 6.2 | 30% | −21 | 71–77 |
| Kennedy Henry | 4.4 | 35% | −16 | 72–76 |
| Brooke Bender | 3.4 | 39% | −12 | 73–76 |
| Kelsey Joens | 2.9 | 41% | −10 | 73–75 |
| Fairfield | ||||
| Kaety L'Amoreaux | 5.5 | 71% | +20 | 77–71 |
| Meghan Andersen | 3.9 | 66% | +15 | 76–72 |
| Cyanne Coe | 3.3 | 63% | +12 | 76–72 |
| Jillian Huerter | 2.0 | 59% | +8 | 75–73 |
Change is in Villanova's win chance, in points. Scores read Villanova, then Fairfield. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Villanova 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 82.0 and allowing 74.7
Fairfield 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 69-67at Seton Hall
- Nov 8W 74-50vs Vermont
- Nov 6W 90-63vs Binghamton
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 77.7 and allowing 60.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Villanova | Fairfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 110.4 21st | 106.2 37th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 87.3 70th | 87.9 73rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 135th | 71.5 225th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.1% 46th | 50.2% 9th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.1% 316th | 48.0% 314th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.5% 12th | 22.2% 74th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.7% 90th | 32.6% 197th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 257th | 0.19 303rd |
The widest gap: Villanova's offense (21st) against Fairfield's defense (73rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Villanova 35, Fairfield 35
- First-half margin
- Villanova by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Projected second half
- Villanova 39, Fairfield 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Villanova, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 37.5 scored, 31.5 allowed
- Fairfield, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 27.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Villanova
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine BascoeG | 34 | 23.4 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 |
| 25+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 47% · 5+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kennedy HenryG | 27 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Alexis EberzG | 24 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Dani CeserettiG | 22 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Kelsey JoensG | 22 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Simone PelishG | 20 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Brooke BenderF | 20 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Elise BenderF | 19 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Fairfield
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaety L'AmoreauxG | 37 | 20.9 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| 20+ pts 54% · 6+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Meghan AndersenF | 32 | 14.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 52% · 3+ threes 45% | |||||
| Paige KohlerG | 26 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Jillian HuerterG | 25 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Cyanne CoeF | 25 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Lana McCarthyF | 18 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Milou van VlietF | 17 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Addison RhodesG | 14 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
Missed the last game: Milou van Vliet (21 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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