UConn at Louisville
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 5:30 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center. UConn AP 4, our rank 2 · 3-1; Louisville AP 7, our rank 10 · 5-0.
Who will win UConn vs Louisville?
The model gives UConn a 73% chance to beat Louisville, with a projected score of UConn 77, Louisville 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | |||||
| StrongF · 29 min | 21.5 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 20+ 57% | |
| PopovicG · 29 min | 11.8 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 10+ 61% | |
| ArnoldG · 29 min | 9.3 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 10+ 43% | |
| QuinonezF · 23 min | 8.9 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 10+ 40% | |
| Louisville | |||||
| RobertsG · 30 min | 13.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 15+ 38% | |
| BerryG · 25 min | 12.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| JonesG · 27 min | 9.7 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| JoynerF · 18 min | 7.7 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sarah Strong: UConn 40%Louisville 60%
The white mark is the call with her: UConn 73%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UConn without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | ||||
| Sarah Strong | 10.5 | 40% | −33 | 72–75 |
| KK Arnold | 7.1 | 51% | −22 | 74–73 |
| Blanca Quinonez | 6.1 | 54% | −19 | 74–73 |
| Ashlynn Shade | 5.0 | 58% | −15 | 75–72 |
| Louisville | ||||
| Imari Berry | 5.0 | 85% | +12 | 80–67 |
| Tajianna Roberts | 4.5 | 84% | +11 | 79–68 |
| Zamareya Jones | 4.2 | 83% | +10 | 79–68 |
| Mackenly Randolph | 4.1 | 83% | +10 | 79–68 |
Change is in UConn's win chance, in points. Scores read UConn, then Louisville. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UConn 3-1WLWW
- Nov 12W 87-55at Ohio StateCovered −9.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 8W 91-79vs IowaDidn't cover −13.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 5L 66-77at MichiganDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 2W 100-35vs Cornell
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 86.0 and allowing 61.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
Louisville 5-0WWWWW
- Nov 12W 94-73at Ball StateDidn't cover −22.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 10W 71-35vs Lindenwood
- Nov 8W 80-57at S Indiana
- Nov 4W 87-35vs Stetson
- Nov 2W 119-47vs Bellarmine
- Last five
- 5–0, scoring 90.2 and allowing 49.4
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UConn | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 120.7 2nd | 114.8 9th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 69.5 2nd | 78.6 15th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 57th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.8% 1st | 50.0% 11th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.2% 103rd | 42.6% 32nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.0% 61st | 20.4% 10th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.9% 84th | 38.2% 12th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 341st | 0.19 324th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UConn 37, Louisville 33
- First-half margin
- UConn by 4.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Projected second half
- UConn 40, Louisville 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UConn, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 41.2 scored, 30.0 allowed
- Louisville, first halves so far
- Led 5 of 5 · 49.0 scored, 22.6 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UConn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah StrongF | 29 | 21.5 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| 20+ pts 57% · 8+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| KK ArnoldG | 29 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 56% | |||||
| Jovana PopovicG | 29 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Ashlynn ShadeG | 24 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Blanca QuinonezF | 23 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Olivia VukosaC | 21 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Kayleigh HeckelG | 14 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Jana El AlfyC | 13 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
Louisville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajianna RobertsG | 30 | 13.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Zamareya JonesG | 27 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Imari BerryG | 25 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Carys BakerF | 23 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Mackenly RandolphF | 21 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Elif IstanbulluogluF | 18 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Amiya JoynerF | 18 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Ariyana CradleG | 15 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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