USC v South Carolina
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. USC AP 3, our rank 4 · 3-0; South Carolina AP 1, our rank 1 · 3-0.
Who will win USC vs South Carolina?
The model gives South Carolina a 83% chance to beat USC, with a projected score of South Carolina 81, USC 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | |||||
| EdwardsF · 27 min | 15.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 15+ 49% | |
| JohnsonG · 26 min | 12.2 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 10+ 63% | |
| KittsF · 21 min | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 55% | |
| MakeerG · 27 min | 10.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 10+ 51% | |
| USC | |||||
| WatkinsG · 26 min | 18.4 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 20+ 41% | |
| DavidsonG · 28 min | 15.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 15+ 49% | |
| HallG · 24 min | 13.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 15+ 38% | |
| SmithG · 26 min | 7.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Joyce Edwards: USC 41%South Carolina 59%
The white mark is the call with her: South Carolina 83%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | South Carolina without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | ||||
| Joyce Edwards | 8.6 | 59% | −24 | 73–76 |
| Jordan Lee | 6.8 | 65% | −18 | 72–77 |
| Agot Makeer | 6.6 | 66% | −17 | 72–77 |
| Tessa Johnson | 6.5 | 66% | −17 | 72–77 |
| USC | ||||
| JuJu Watkins | 8.1 | 94% | +11 | 65–85 |
| Jazzy Davidson | 7.1 | 94% | +11 | 65–84 |
| Kennedy Smith | 5.2 | 91% | +8 | 66–83 |
| Laura Williams | 3.2 | 88% | +5 | 67–82 |
Change is in South Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read USC, then South Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
USC 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 105-44vs CharlestonCovered −52.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 8W 118-40vs Utah StateCovered −48.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 2W 100-68vs UNLV
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 107.7 and allowing 50.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
South Carolina 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 65-44at ClemsonDidn't cover −26.5 · Under 133.5
- Nov 8W 84-39vs North CarolinaCovered −16.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2W 101-93vs Maryland
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.3 and allowing 58.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| USC | South Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 120.0 3rd | 121.4 1st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 78.7 16th | 66.2 1st |
| Possessions a game | 73.3 76th | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.2% 4th | 48.2% 41st |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.5% 27th | 41.2% 14th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 3rd | 22.0% 65th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 38.9% 4th | 37.9% 17th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 293rd | 0.25 22nd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- USC 32, South Carolina 39
- First-half margin
- South Carolina by 6.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.9
- Projected second half
- USC 37, South Carolina 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- USC, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 55.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
- South Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazzy DavidsonG | 28 | 15.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| JuJu WatkinsG | 26 | 18.4 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Kennedy SmithG | 26 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Saniyah HallG | 24 | 13.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Sara OkekeF | 21 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Ryann BennettG | 20 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Sitaya FaganF | 17 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Pania DavisC | 16 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 57% | |||||
South Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LeeG | 28 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Joyce EdwardsF | 27 | 15.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Agot MakeerG | 27 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tessa JohnsonG | 26 | 12.2 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Chloe KittsF | 21 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Ashlyn WatkinsF | 17 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Jerzy RobinsonG | 17 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…