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Probable Stats / Women's / Sunday, November 15

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Oklahoma St at S Dakota St

Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at First Bank & Trust Arena. Oklahoma St AP 19, our rank 26 · 3-1; S Dakota St our rank 65 · 1-2.

Who will win Oklahoma St vs S Dakota St?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Oklahoma State a 65% chance to beat South Dakota State, with a projected score of Oklahoma St 74, S Dakota St 69.

To winOklahoma St 65%S Dakota St 35%
Projected score74–69Oklahoma St, then S Dakota St
Margin4.7Oklahoma St · no line posted
Total142.8no line posted
First half35–32Oklahoma St ahead 59%
Oklahoma St by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20S Dakota St by 30Model: Oklahoma St by 4.7Oklahoma St by 30by 10by 10S Dakota St by 30Model: Oklahoma St by 4.7

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Oklahoma St
CrooksC · 27 min17.86.60.820+ 37%
McGillG · 31 min16.65.75.715+ 58%
NdiayeG · 28 min11.83.81.210+ 61%
DengG · 25 min9.14.61.310+ 42%
S Dakota St
MeyerF · 26 min15.16.72.115+ 50%
ShindelarG · 25 min9.52.51.610+ 44%
VaseckaG · 30 min9.43.31.810+ 44%
FoxG · 24 min8.42.53.010+ 37%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Audi Crooks: Oklahoma St 46%S Dakota St 54%

The white mark is the call with her: Oklahoma St 65%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsOklahoma St without herChangeProjected score
Oklahoma St
Audi Crooks6.046%−1971–72
Liv McGill4.850%−1571–71
Stailee Heard3.554%−1172–71
Yuting Deng2.956%−972–70
S Dakota St
Brooklyn Meyer6.081%+1677–66
Emilee Fox2.271%+675–68
Mahli Abdouch2.071%+675–68
Katie Vasecka1.870%+575–68

Change is in Oklahoma St's win chance, in points. Scores read Oklahoma St, then S Dakota St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Oklahoma St 3-1WWWL

    1. Nov 12L 62-64at TulsaDidn't cover −24.5 · Under 139.5
    2. Nov 9W 94-56vs N'Western St
    3. Nov 6W 92-38vs Morgan StCovered −50.5 · Under 139.5
    4. Nov 2W 81-39vs Southern
    Last 4
    3–1, scoring 82.2 and allowing 49.2
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    S Dakota St 1-2LWL

    1. Nov 11L 63-93at TexasDidn't cover +27.5 · Over 137.5
    2. Nov 6W 76-54vs Northern Iowa
    3. Nov 2L 71-73vs Creighton
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 70.0 and allowing 73.3
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Oklahoma StS Dakota St
    Points scored per 100 possessions106.6 34th106.2 35th
    Points allowed per 10081.1 26th92.4 138th
    Possessions a game72.1 164th71.0 285th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)47.8% 55th48.1% 48th
    Opponents' shooting42.4% 23rd48.4% 325th
    Turnovers, share of possessions23.0% 134th22.5% 97th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.8% 134th31.9% 230th
    Free throws per shot0.25 18th0.18 334th

    The widest gap: Oklahoma St's offense (34th) against S Dakota St's defense (138th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Oklahoma St 35, S Dakota St 32
    First-half margin
    Oklahoma St by 2.7
    First-half points, both teams
    67.7
    Projected second half
    Oklahoma St 39, S Dakota St 37
    Second-half points, both teams
    75.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Oklahoma St, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 38.5 scored, 21.8 allowed
    S Dakota St, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 33.3 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Oklahoma St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Stailee HeardG328.76.12.91.0
    10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 52%
    Liv McGillG3116.65.75.71.1
    15+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 49% · 6+ ast 50%
    Nene NdiayeG2811.83.81.21.2
    10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 63%
    Audi CrooksC2717.86.60.80.0
    20+ pts 37% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 20%
    Yuting DengG259.14.61.31.3
    10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 36%
    LA SneedG225.32.32.30.4
    5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 61% · 3+ ast 40%
    Callin HakeG205.21.81.91.2
    5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 54%
    Talexa WeeterG165.12.90.80.4
    5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 32%

    S Dakota St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Katie VaseckaG309.43.31.81.0
    10+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 57%
    Mahli AbdouchG276.92.63.40.9
    5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 44%
    Brooklyn MeyerF2615.16.72.10.0
    15+ pts 50% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 58%
    Hadley ThulG266.43.31.10.6
    5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 43%
    Audrey ShindelarG259.52.51.60.9
    10+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 56%
    Emilee FoxG248.42.53.01.4
    10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 55%
    Claire SheppardF133.82.70.70.5
    5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 37%
    Maggie HartwigF123.43.10.40.3
    5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 22%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sun, Nov 15

    All games
    1. 1 PMprojected 77-74Vanderbilt vs Iowa, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 73-74Florida at Florida St, women's: game page
    3. 2 PMprojected 69-69Michigan St at Harvard, women's: game page
    4. 2 PMprojected 74-74Villanova at Fairfield, women's: game page
    5. 4 PMprojected 68-67Montana St at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 5:30 PMprojected 77-70UConn at Louisville, women's: game page
    Oklahoma St next: vs St John's, Wed, Nov 18 · 79%S Dakota St next: vs Wyoming, Wed, Nov 18 · 99%Oklahoma St: schedule and oddsS Dakota St: schedule and odds