Southern 39, Oklahoma St 81
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Southern our rank 287 · 0-3; Oklahoma St AP 19, our rank 26 · 3-1.
Who won Southern vs Oklahoma St?
Final: Oklahoma State 81, Southern 39. Before tip-off the model gave Oklahoma State a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 34.3 points for Oklahoma State. Audi Crooks scored 22 for Oklahoma St; Zaria Hurston had 10 for Southern.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Audi Crooks: Southern 2%Oklahoma St 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Oklahoma St 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oklahoma St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma St | ||||
| Audi Crooks | 6.0 | 98% | −1 | 66–95 |
| Liv McGill | 4.8 | 98% | −1 | 66–95 |
| Stailee Heard | 3.5 | 99% | 0 | 65–96 |
| Yuting Deng | 2.9 | 99% | 0 | 65–96 |
| Southern | ||||
| DeMya Porter | 1.3 | >99% | +1 | 63–98 |
| Jocelyn Tate | 1.0 | 99% | 0 | 63–98 |
| Jestiny Dixon | 0.7 | 99% | 0 | 63–98 |
Change is in Oklahoma St's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern, then Oklahoma St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Southern
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Oklahoma St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern | Oklahoma St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.7 310th | 106.6 34th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.4 227th | 81.1 26th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 40.6% 356th | 47.8% 55th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 348th | 42.4% 23rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.1% 325th | 23.0% 134th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 270th | 33.8% 134th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 214th | 0.25 18th |
The widest gap: Oklahoma St's defense (26th) against Southern's offense (310th), of 363 teams.
First half
Oklahoma St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.3 points and the total by 7.3.
- At halftime
- Southern 23, Oklahoma St 46
- Projected halftime score
- Southern 28, Oklahoma St 48
- First-half margin
- Oklahoma St by 19.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniya ThorntonG | 32 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Dalayja Hurt-FloydG | 31 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaria HurstonF | 29 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Alisha NunleyG | 28 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Taniya LawsonG | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Anaja HallC | 21 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Diamond HunterG | 19 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Aubri WilkinsG | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaliyah ScottG | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Oklahoma St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stailee HeardG | 27 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Nene NdiayeG | 25 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Audi CrooksC | 24 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Yuting DengG | 24 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 0 |
| Liv McGillG | 24 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| LA SneedG | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Callin HakeG | 21 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Talexa WeeterG | 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Ellie BrueggemannG | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |