Who won Murray St vs S Indiana?
Final: Murray State 82, Southern Indiana 67. Before tip-off the model gave Murray State a 49% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 0.4 points for Southern Indiana. Halli Poock scored 33 for Murray St; Channah Gannon had 16 for S Indiana.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Chloe Gannon: Murray St 54%S Indiana 46%
The white mark is the call with her: S Indiana 51%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | S Indiana without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 S Indiana | ||||
| Chloe Gannon | 1.6 | 46% | −5 | 86–85 |
| Sophia Loden | 1.4 | 46% | −5 | 86–85 |
| Channah Gannon | 1.3 | 47% | −4 | 86–85 |
| Amiyah Buchanan | 1.0 | 48% | −3 | 86–85 |
 Murray St | ||||
| Sharnecce Currie-Jelks | 3.7 | 65% | +14 | 84–88 |
| Halli Poock | 2.9 | 62% | +11 | 84–87 |
| Haven Ford | 2.7 | 61% | +10 | 84–87 |
| Claire Johnson | 2.1 | 59% | +8 | 84–87 |
Change is in S Indiana's win chance, in points. Scores read Murray St, then S Indiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Murray St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
S Indiana
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Murray St | S Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.3 47th | 91.2 159th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.8 213th | 89.5 101st |
| Possessions a game | 74.3 29th | 71.7 211th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.0% 96th | 44.6% 235th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 200th | 47.2% 285th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 130th | 23.9% 213th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.0% 166th | 29.1% 344th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 41st | 0.18 340th |
The widest gap: Murray St's offense (47th) against S Indiana's defense (101st), of 363 teams.
First half
Murray St led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 10.3 points and the total by 15.3.
- At halftime
- Murray St 38, S Indiana 28
- Projected halftime score
- Murray St 41, S Indiana 41
- First-half margin
- S Indiana by 0.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 81.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Murray St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halli PoockG | 30 | 33 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Haven FordG | 28 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| Sydney HuberG | 27 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Sharnecce Currie-JelksF | 26 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Keslyn SecristG | 26 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Claire JohnsonG | 24 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Katie ReedF | 15 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Destiny ThomasG | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaidynn AskinsF | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
S Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiyah BuchananF | 24 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Shannon BlacherG | 23 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Sophia LodenG | 23 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Tamara OrtizG | 23 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Channah GannonF | 23 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Ella BobeG | 19 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Chloe GannonF | 18 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lexi SepulvedaG | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maddy ShirleyF | 15 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 |