N Dakota St 56, Gonzaga 62
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at McCarthey Athletic Center. N Dakota St our rank 85 · 1-3; Gonzaga our rank 74 · 2-1.
Who won N Dakota St vs Gonzaga?
Final: Gonzaga 62, North Dakota State 56. Before tip-off the model gave Gonzaga a 77% chance to win, with a projected margin of 10.4 points for Gonzaga. Lauren Whittaker scored 22 for Gonzaga; Karrington Asp had 20 for N Dakota St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Lauren Whittaker: N Dakota St 35%Gonzaga 65%
The white mark is the call with her: Gonzaga 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Gonzaga without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | ||||
| Lauren Whittaker | 4.9 | 65% | −12 | 81–86 |
| Allie Turner | 2.7 | 71% | −6 | 80–87 |
| Taylor Smith | 1.8 | 73% | −4 | 79–88 |
| Teryn Gardner | 1.8 | 73% | −4 | 79–88 |
| N Dakota St | ||||
| Karrington Asp | 3.8 | 85% | +8 | 76–91 |
| Marisa Frost | 3.1 | 83% | +6 | 77–90 |
| Jocelyn Schiller | 2.2 | 82% | +5 | 77–90 |
| Miriley Simon | 1.7 | 81% | +4 | 77–89 |
Change is in Gonzaga's win chance, in points. Scores read N Dakota St, then Gonzaga. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
N Dakota St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Gonzaga
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Dakota St | Gonzaga | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.2 80th | 102.0 59th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.0 107th | 90.5 116th |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 318th | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.8% 105th | 45.1% 201st |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 194th | 46.3% 230th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.1% 235th | 23.6% 193rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 234th | 32.9% 174th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 255th | 0.22 106th |
The widest gap: Gonzaga's offense (59th) against N Dakota St's defense (107th), of 363 teams.
First half
N Dakota St led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 13.0 points and the total by 28.2.
- At halftime
- N Dakota St 29, Gonzaga 22
- Projected halftime score
- N Dakota St 37, Gonzaga 43
- First-half margin
- Gonzaga by 6.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 79.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
N Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karrington AspF | 33 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Marisa FrostG | 31 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jocelyn SchillerG | 30 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Elena LazarevicG | 24 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sophie HawkinsonG | 21 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Miriley SimonF | 19 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Lily NiebuhrF | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| McKenna JohnsonF | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Avery KoenenF | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Gonzaga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allie TurnerG | 35 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Teryn GardnerG | 31 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Lauren WhittakerF | 29 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Zeryhia AokusoG | 24 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Taylor SmithF | 21 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| McKynnlie DalanF | 17 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Julia WilsonG | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ines BettencourtG | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Abby LuskF | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |