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Probable Stats / Women's / Thursday, November 19

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N Dakota St at UT Rio Grande

Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at UTRGV Fieldhouse. N Dakota St our rank 85 · 1-3; UT Rio Grande our rank 223 · 1-3.

Who will win N Dakota St vs UT Rio Grande?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives North Dakota State a 80% chance to beat UT Rio Grande Valley, with a projected score of N Dakota St 72, UT Rio Grande 61.

To winN Dakota St 80%UT Rio Grande 20%
Projected score72–61N Dakota St, then UT Rio Grande
Margin10.2N Dakota St · no line posted
Total132.9no line posted
First half34–29N Dakota St ahead 71%
N Dakota St by 40by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10UT Rio Grande by 20Model: N Dakota St by 10.2N Dakota St by 40by 20EvenUT Rio Grande by 20Model: N Dakota St by 10.2

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
N Dakota St
AspF · 33 min16.77.31.415+ 59%
FrostG · 35 min13.21.92.215+ 38%
SchillerG · 33 min10.63.72.110+ 52%
HawkinsonG · 31 min8.54.82.910+ 37%
UT Rio Grande
McLaurinG · 28 min15.33.91.115+ 51%
AarnioG · 34 min10.53.42.910+ 52%
FimboF · 24 min6.57.20.85+ 61%
WhitehairF · 16 min6.44.00.35+ 60%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Karrington Asp: N Dakota St 70%UT Rio Grande 30%

The white mark is the call with her: N Dakota St 80%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsN Dakota St without herChangeProjected score
N Dakota St
Karrington Asp3.870%−1070–63
Marisa Frost3.172%−870–63
Jocelyn Schiller2.274%−670–62
Miriley Simon1.776%−471–62
UT Rio Grande
Janette Aarnio0.681%+172–61

Change is in N Dakota St's win chance, in points. Scores read N Dakota St, then UT Rio Grande. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    N Dakota St 1-3LWLL

    1. Nov 12L 61-68at Butler
    2. Nov 9L 60-66vs Creighton
    3. Nov 5W 86-60vs Augustana (SD)
    4. Nov 2L 56-62at Gonzaga
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 65.8 and allowing 64.0

    UT Rio Grande 1-3WLLL

    1. Nov 11L 59-76vs Abilene Chrstn
    2. Nov 8L 39-68at Kansas St
    3. Nov 6L 56-68at South Dakota
    4. Nov 2W 114-47vs Arlington Baptist
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 67.0 and allowing 64.8

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    N Dakota StUT Rio Grande
    Points scored per 100 possessions99.2 80th88.8 204th
    Points allowed per 10090.0 107th98.6 264th
    Possessions a game70.5 318th71.2 265th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)46.8% 105th42.8% 318th
    Opponents' shooting45.8% 194th47.3% 290th
    Turnovers, share of possessions24.1% 235th24.0% 223rd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses31.9% 234th31.3% 264th
    Free throws per shot0.20 255th0.24 45th

    The widest gap: N Dakota St's offense (80th) against UT Rio Grande's defense (264th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    N Dakota St 34, UT Rio Grande 29
    First-half margin
    N Dakota St by 5.9
    First-half points, both teams
    63.0
    Projected second half
    N Dakota St 37, UT Rio Grande 33
    Second-half points, both teams
    69.9
    Tied at the half
    4%
    N Dakota St, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 4 · 27.2 scored, 26.8 allowed
    UT Rio Grande, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 4 · 34.8 scored, 30.8 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    N Dakota St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Marisa FrostG3513.21.92.21.4
    15+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 62%
    Jocelyn SchillerG3310.63.72.10.8
    10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49%
    Karrington AspF3316.77.31.40.7
    15+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48%
    Sophie HawkinsonG318.54.82.91.0
    10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 54%
    Miriley SimonF247.66.71.50.4
    10+ pts 31% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 43%
    Elena LazarevicG175.02.00.90.7
    31% to play · 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 47%
    McKenna JohnsonF143.73.10.60.0
    5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 55%
    Madelynn MunizG132.11.10.60.5
    5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 37%

    Missed the last game: Elena Lazarevic (20 min a game).

    UT Rio Grande

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Janette AarnioG3410.53.42.90.3
    10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 53%
    Kamryn McLaurinG2815.33.91.10.6
    15+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 44%
    Lina FimboF246.57.20.80.7
    5+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 47%
    Erin MaguireG194.41.41.40.7
    5+ pts 41% · 2+ ast 40% · 1+ threes 46%
    Jessica BordersG184.72.30.90.6
    5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 42%
    Elise HorneF173.14.00.50.0
    5+ pts 26% · 4+ reb 53%
    Gianna AngioletG163.81.21.11.0
    5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 31% · 1+ threes 57%
    Rylie WhitehairF166.44.00.30.5
    5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 36%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Thu, Nov 19

    All games
    1. 11 AMprojected 68-76Purdue vs Florida St, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 64-64Texas Tech vs North Carolina, women's: game page
    3. 6 PMprojected 62-67App State at Wake Forest, women's: game page
    4. 6 PMprojected 60-70James Madison at Virginia, women's: game page
    5. 6 PMprojected 65-65High Point at Vermont, women's: game page
    6. 10 PMprojected 67-77Fairfield at Oregon, women's: game page
    N Dakota St next: at UTSA, Sat, Nov 21 · 47%UT Rio Grande next: at Rice, Wed, Nov 25 · 5%N Dakota St: schedule and oddsUT Rio Grande: schedule and odds