James Madison at Virginia
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena. James Madison our rank 53 · 2-2; Virginia our rank 29 · 4-0.
Who will win James Madison vs Virginia?
The model gives Virginia a 81% chance to beat James Madison, with a projected score of Virginia 70, James Madison 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | |||||
| JohnsonG · 29 min | 16.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 15+ 60% | |
| AsareG · 28 min | 14.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 15+ 48% | |
| HurdF · 26 min | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 10+ 58% | |
| PiattiF · 24 min | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 5+ 55% | |
| James Madison | |||||
| RobinsonG · 30 min | 9.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 10+ 41% | |
| MooreF · 22 min | 8.7 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 10+ 39% | |
| StephensonG · 25 min | 7.9 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 10+ 33% | |
| McDonoughF · 19 min | 6.1 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kymora Johnson: James Madison 36%Virginia 64%
The white mark is the call with her: Virginia 81%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Virginia without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | ||||
| Kymora Johnson | 6.1 | 64% | −17 | 63–67 |
| Breona Hurd | 3.8 | 71% | −10 | 62–68 |
| Mary-Anna Asare | 2.8 | 73% | −8 | 61–69 |
| Adeang Ring | 2.8 | 74% | −7 | 61–69 |
| James Madison | ||||
| Bree Robinson | 3.5 | 87% | +6 | 58–72 |
| Trinity Moore | 3.0 | 87% | +6 | 58–72 |
| Delilah Soltys | 2.5 | 86% | +5 | 59–71 |
| Zakiya Stephenson | 2.3 | 85% | +4 | 59–71 |
Change is in Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read James Madison, then Virginia. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
James Madison 2-2LWLW
- Nov 11W 77-61vs Navy
- Nov 8L 43-59at Virginia Tech
- Nov 5W 77-38vs C Connecticut
- Nov 2L 52-59at Miami OH
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 62.2 and allowing 54.2
Virginia 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 81-39vs Drexel
- Nov 8W 99-58vs William & Mary
- Nov 5W 72-57at Davidson
- Nov 2W 87-45vs MD Eastern
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 84.8 and allowing 49.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| James Madison | Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.9 82nd | 107.1 28th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 81.3 29th | 82.2 37th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.4% 183rd | 51.8% 6th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.2% 22nd | 42.7% 35th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 162nd | 23.0% 138th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 101st | 33.8% 137th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 356th | 0.21 214th |
The widest gap: Virginia's defense (37th) against James Madison's offense (82nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- James Madison 28, Virginia 34
- First-half margin
- Virginia by 6.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.6
- Projected second half
- James Madison 32, Virginia 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- James Madison, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 27.8 scored, 27.2 allowed
- Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
James Madison
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bree RobinsonG | 30 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Zakiya StephensonG | 25 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Maddie LeachG | 24 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Delilah SoltysG | 24 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Trinity MooreF | 22 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Grace McDonoughF | 19 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 43% | |||||
| Trynce TaylorF | 18 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Ja'Quoia Jones-BrownG | 18 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Missed the last game: Brianna McLeod (17 min a game).
Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kymora JohnsonG | 29 | 16.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mary-Anna AsareG | 28 | 14.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Breona HurdF | 26 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Caterina PiattiF | 24 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Sintija AukstikalnyteG | 20 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Adeang RingF | 17 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Eris LesterG | 16 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Erica GribbleG | 14 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…