East Carolina at James Madison
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Atlantic Union Bank Center. East Carolina our rank 229 · 1-2; James Madison our rank 53 · 2-2.
Who will win East Carolina vs James Madison?
The model gives James Madison a 99% chance to beat East Carolina, with a projected score of James Madison 77, East Carolina 50.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | |||||
| MooreF · 21 min | 10.5 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| RobinsonG · 28 min | 10.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 10+ 52% | |
| StephensonG · 24 min | 9.4 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 10+ 44% | |
| McDonoughF · 19 min | 7.6 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 5+ 69% | |
| East Carolina | |||||
| HearpG · 26 min | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 10+ 39% | |
| CoskunG · 28 min | 8.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 10+ 36% | |
| RickenbackerG · 23 min | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 5+ 55% | |
| HiteG · 19 min | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 5+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bree Robinson: East Carolina 3%James Madison 97%
The white mark is the call with her: James Madison 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | James Madison without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | ||||
| Bree Robinson | 3.5 | 97% | −2 | 51–75 |
| Trinity Moore | 3.0 | 98% | −1 | 51–75 |
| Delilah Soltys | 2.5 | 98% | −1 | 51–76 |
| Zakiya Stephenson | 2.3 | 98% | −1 | 51–76 |
| East Carolina | ||||
| Jayla Hearp | 0.9 | 99% | 0 | 49–77 |
| Jayda Holiman | 0.7 | 99% | 0 | 49–77 |
Change is in James Madison's win chance, in points. Scores read East Carolina, then James Madison. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
East Carolina 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 54-67vs High Point
- Nov 7L 49-82vs Liberty
- Nov 3W 61-45vs Charleston So
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 54.7 and allowing 64.7
James Madison 2-2LWLW
- Nov 11W 77-61vs Navy
- Nov 8L 43-59at Virginia Tech
- Nov 5W 77-38vs C Connecticut
- Nov 2L 52-59at Miami OH
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 62.2 and allowing 54.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| East Carolina | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 85.0 263rd | 98.9 82nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.7 210th | 81.3 29th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.2% 337th | 45.4% 183rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.9% 208th | 42.2% 22nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.9% 280th | 23.2% 162nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.6% 249th | 34.4% 101st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 173rd | 0.16 356th |
The widest gap: James Madison's defense (29th) against East Carolina's offense (263rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- East Carolina 22, James Madison 38
- First-half margin
- James Madison by 15.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.9
- Projected second half
- East Carolina 27, James Madison 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- East Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 25.0 scored, 29.7 allowed
- James Madison, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 27.8 scored, 27.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
East Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuana CoskunG | 28 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jayla HearpG | 26 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Mildred DibuaF | 25 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 56% | |||||
| Tristan RickenbackerG | 23 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Kendall SneedG | 23 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Rylie HiteG | 19 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jayda HolimanG | 18 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Olivia HilliardG | 16 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2+ reb 33% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
James Madison
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bree RobinsonG | 28 | 10.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Zakiya StephensonG | 24 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Delilah SoltysG | 23 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Maddie LeachG | 23 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Trinity MooreF | 21 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 7+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Grace McDonoughF | 19 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 57% | |||||
| Trynce TaylorF | 18 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Ja'Quoia Jones-BrownG | 18 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Brianna McLeod (17 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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