Florida at Florida St
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Tucker Center. Florida our rank 57 · 3-1; Florida St our rank 63 · 4-0.
Who will win Florida vs Florida St?
The model gives Florida State a 54% chance to beat Florida, with a projected score of Florida St 74, Florida 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St | |||||
| StewartG · 23 min | 11.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 10+ 58% | |
| WilliamsG · 25 min | 11.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 10+ 57% | |
| Lewis-EutseyG · 18 min | 10.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 52% | |
| GreeneG · 28 min | 8.7 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| Florida | |||||
| McMillerG · 37 min | 22.9 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 25+ 39% | |
| IwuchukwuF · 28 min | 12.1 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 63% | |
| HarrisG · 32 min | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 62% | |
| WeathersbyF · 24 min | 9.4 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Aga Makurat: Florida 57%Florida St 43%
The white mark is the call with her: Florida St 54%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Florida St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St | ||||
| Aga Makurat | 3.0 | 43% | −11 | 74–73 |
| Sole Williams | 2.3 | 46% | −8 | 74–73 |
| Tatum Greene | 2.3 | 46% | −8 | 74–73 |
| Savannah Henderson | 2.1 | 47% | −7 | 74–73 |
| Florida | ||||
| Kiyomi McMiller | 4.4 | 70% | +16 | 71–76 |
| Vanessa Harris | 3.0 | 65% | +11 | 71–76 |
| Vivian Iwuchukwu | 3.0 | 65% | +11 | 71–76 |
| Jade Weathersby | 2.7 | 64% | +10 | 72–75 |
Change is in Florida St's win chance, in points. Scores read Florida, then Florida St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Florida 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 70-72vs South Florida
- Nov 8W 64-58at Chattanooga
- Nov 5W 95-65vs UCF
- Nov 2W 83-60vs Bucknell
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 78.0 and allowing 63.8
Florida St 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 86-58vs West Florida
- Nov 8W 101-42vs Florida A&M
- Nov 5W 74-63vs North Florida
- Nov 2W 81-51vs Merrimack
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 85.5 and allowing 53.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Florida | Florida St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.1 42nd | 102.3 56th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.1 78th | 88.0 77th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 73.9 51st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 64th | 46.5% 121st |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 162nd | 44.6% 127th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.7% 48th | 20.1% 6th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.0% 225th | 34.2% 115th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 203rd | 0.19 299th |
The widest gap: Florida's offense (42nd) against Florida St's defense (77th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Florida 34, Florida St 35
- First-half margin
- Florida St by 0.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.6
- Projected second half
- Florida 38, Florida St 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Florida, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 35.8 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Florida St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 41.0 scored, 26.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiyomi McMillerG | 37 | 22.9 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 25+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Moriah MurrayG | 34 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Vanessa HarrisG | 32 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Vivian IwuchukwuF | 28 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Jordan JonesG | 25 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jade WeathersbyF | 24 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Aurora AlmonF | 14 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 5+ reb 45% | |||||
Florida St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum GreeneG | 28 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Aga MakuratF | 27 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Savannah HendersonF | 25 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Sole WilliamsG | 25 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Morgan StewartG | 23 | 11.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Timaya Lewis-EutseyG | 18 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| 53% to play · 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Emma RischG | 18 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jasmine NivarG | 16 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Missed the last game: Timaya Lewis-Eutsey (18 min a game) and Missy Odom (16 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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