Who will win FAU vs Florida?
The model gives Florida a 93% chance to beat Florida Atlantic, with a projected score of Florida 76, FAU 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida | |||||
| McMillerG · 34 min | 22.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 20+ 61% | |
| IwuchukwuF · 27 min | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 10+ 63% | |
| HarrisG · 30 min | 11.9 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 10+ 61% | |
| WeathersbyF · 24 min | 9.5 | 7.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 45% | |
 FAU | |||||
| RodgersG · 20 min | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 48% | |
| HouseyG · 25 min | 8.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 10+ 38% | |
| TuthillG · 26 min | 7.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 5+ 66% | |
| LerouxG · 20 min | 6.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kiyomi McMiller: FAU 13%Florida 87%
The white mark is the call with her: Florida 93%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Florida without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | ||||
| Kiyomi McMiller | 4.4 | 87% | −6 | 61–74 |
| Vanessa Harris | 3.0 | 89% | −4 | 60–75 |
| Vivian Iwuchukwu | 3.0 | 89% | −4 | 60–75 |
| Jade Weathersby | 2.7 | 89% | −4 | 60–75 |
| FAU | ||||
| Vivian Onugha | 1.2 | 94% | +1 | 58–77 |
| Grace Carstensen | 0.9 | 94% | +1 | 58–77 |
| Madi Gewirtz | 0.9 | 94% | +1 | 58–77 |
| Skyla Tuthill | 0.9 | 94% | +1 | 58–77 |
Change is in Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read FAU, then Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
FAU 2-2LWLW
- Nov 11W 85-57vs South AlabamaCovered −9.5 · Over 131.5
- Nov 8L 56-78vs Duke
- Nov 7W 68-28vs Kennesaw St
- Nov 2L 48-75at Miami
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 64.2 and allowing 59.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Florida 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 70-72vs South Florida
- Nov 8W 64-58at Chattanooga
- Nov 5W 95-65vs UCF
- Nov 2W 83-60vs Bucknell
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 78.0 and allowing 63.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FAU | Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.7 183rd | 104.1 42nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.0 95th | 88.1 78th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 161st | 47.6% 64th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.0% 44th | 45.3% 162nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.3% 253rd | 21.7% 48th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 199th | 32.0% 225th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 319th | 0.21 203rd |
The widest gap: Florida's defense (78th) against FAU's offense (183rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- FAU 27, Florida 37
- First-half margin
- Florida by 10.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.9
- Projected second half
- FAU 32, Florida 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- FAU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 28.5 allowed
- Florida, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 35.8 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
FAU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyla TuthillG | 26 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jaelynn HouseyG | 25 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mani PiljevicG | 20 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Juju LerouxG | 20 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Mia JordanF | 20 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Erin RodgersG | 20 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 51% to play · 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jazzy GipsonG | 20 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Grace CarstensenG | 19 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 32% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
Missed the last game: Erin Rodgers (21 min a game).
Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiyomi McMillerG | 34 | 22.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 20+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Moriah MurrayG | 31 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Vanessa HarrisG | 30 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Vivian IwuchukwuF | 27 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Jordan JonesG | 24 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jade WeathersbyF | 24 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 8+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Aurora AlmonF | 14 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 5+ reb 53% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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