Purdue v Florida St
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at State Farm Field House. Purdue our rank 132 · 3-0; Florida St our rank 63 · 4-0.
Who will win Purdue vs Florida St?
The model gives Florida State a 76% chance to beat Purdue, with a projected score of Florida St 76, Purdue 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St | |||||
| StewartG · 23 min | 11.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 10+ 59% | |
| WilliamsG · 24 min | 11.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 10+ 58% | |
| Lewis-EutseyG · 18 min | 10.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 10+ 54% | |
| GreeneG · 28 min | 8.8 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| Purdue | |||||
| WickstromG · 32 min | 19.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 20+ 44% | |
| HunterG · 32 min | 12.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 15+ 34% | |
| BulajicG · 30 min | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 55% | |
| GordonC · 22 min | 9.1 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 41% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Aga Makurat: Purdue 32%Florida St 68%
The white mark is the call with her: Florida St 76%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Florida St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St | ||||
| Aga Makurat | 3.0 | 68% | −8 | 69–75 |
| Sole Williams | 2.3 | 70% | −6 | 69–75 |
| Tatum Greene | 2.3 | 70% | −6 | 69–75 |
| Savannah Henderson | 2.1 | 71% | −5 | 69–75 |
| Purdue | ||||
| Hannah Wickstrom | 3.6 | 84% | +8 | 66–78 |
| Avery Gordon | 2.0 | 81% | +5 | 67–77 |
| Averi Aaron | 1.2 | 79% | +3 | 67–77 |
| Jelena Bulajic | 0.9 | 78% | +2 | 67–77 |
Change is in Florida St's win chance, in points. Scores read Purdue, then Florida St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Purdue 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 73-50vs SE Missouri
- Nov 5W 83-73vs E Michigan
- Nov 2W 81-73vs IU Indy
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.0 and allowing 65.3
Florida St 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 86-58vs West Florida
- Nov 8W 101-42vs Florida A&M
- Nov 5W 74-63vs North Florida
- Nov 2W 81-51vs Merrimack
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 85.5 and allowing 53.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Purdue | Florida St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.6 120th | 102.3 56th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.2 153rd | 88.0 77th |
| Possessions a game | 72.9 103rd | 73.9 51st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.3% 127th | 46.5% 121st |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 166th | 44.6% 127th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.8% 317th | 20.1% 6th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.9% 124th | 34.2% 115th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 3rd | 0.19 299th |
The widest gap: Florida St's offense (56th) against Purdue's defense (153rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Purdue 32, Florida St 37
- First-half margin
- Florida St by 5.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.2
- Projected second half
- Purdue 36, Florida St 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Purdue, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 32.3 allowed
- Florida St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 41.0 scored, 26.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Purdue
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah WickstromG | 32 | 19.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 20+ pts 44% · 7+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Kyndall HunterG | 32 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jelena BulajicG | 30 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Taylor HendersonG | 25 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Averi AaronF | 24 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Avery GordonC | 22 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 44% | |||||
| Maya ZilbershlagNA | 13 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
Florida St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum GreeneG | 28 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Aga MakuratF | 27 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Savannah HendersonF | 25 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Sole WilliamsG | 24 | 11.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Morgan StewartG | 23 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Timaya Lewis-EutseyG | 18 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| 53% to play · 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Emma RischG | 18 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jasmine NivarG | 16 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Timaya Lewis-Eutsey (18 min a game) and Missy Odom (16 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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