Merrimack 51, Florida St 81
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Tucker Center. Merrimack our rank 342 · 0-4; Florida St our rank 63 · 4-0.
Who won Merrimack vs Florida St?
Final: Florida State 81, Merrimack 51. Before tip-off the model gave Florida State a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 32.2 points for Florida State. Morgan Stewart scored 13 for Florida St; Claudia Crespo had 12 for Merrimack.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Aga Makurat: Merrimack 2%Florida St 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Florida St 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Florida St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St | ||||
| Aga Makurat | 3.0 | 98% | −1 | 69–98 |
| Sole Williams | 2.3 | 98% | −1 | 68–98 |
| Tatum Greene | 2.3 | 98% | −1 | 68–98 |
| Savannah Henderson | 2.1 | 99% | 0 | 68–98 |
Change is in Florida St's win chance, in points. Scores read Merrimack, then Florida St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Merrimack
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Florida St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Merrimack | Florida St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 75.8 351st | 102.3 56th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.4 291st | 88.0 77th |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 84th | 73.9 51st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.7% 227th | 46.5% 121st |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.1% 278th | 44.6% 127th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 30.0% 360th | 20.1% 6th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 331st | 34.2% 115th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 264th | 0.19 299th |
The widest gap: Florida St's defense (77th) against Merrimack's offense (351st), of 363 teams.
First half
Florida St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.5 points and the total by 22.0.
- At halftime
- Merrimack 19, Florida St 38
- Projected halftime score
- Merrimack 30, Florida St 49
- First-half margin
- Florida St by 18.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 79.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Merrimack
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joi WilliamsG | 31 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Kristen KelleyG | 31 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Olivia BorsutzkiG | 30 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Jamie KentF | 29 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Claudia CrespoG | 28 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Naomi WilsonF | 23 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 0 |
| Claudia MarinaG | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jenna MishouF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emma DibarboureF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Florida St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum GreeneG | 24 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Missy OdomF | 23 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Sole WilliamsG | 23 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Savannah HendersonF | 22 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Aga MakuratF | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Morgan StewartG | 20 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Timaya Lewis-EutseyG | 19 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Emma RischG | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Joy EgbunaF | 14 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |