Merrimack at Boston College
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Conte Forum. Merrimack our rank 342 · 0-4; Boston College our rank 162 · 1-2.
Who will win Merrimack vs Boston College?
The model gives Boston College a 96% chance to beat Merrimack, with a projected score of Boston College 76, Merrimack 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | |||||
| GrierG · 30 min | 15.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 15+ 52% | |
| PaunksnyteG · 30 min | 11.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| SalgadoF · 26 min | 10.9 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 10+ 55% | |
| HollingsworthG · 23 min | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 5+ 69% | |
| Merrimack | |||||
| CrespoG · 28 min | 8.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 10+ 39% | |
| BorsutzkiG · 26 min | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 5+ 66% | |
| KentF · 28 min | 6.7 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 5+ 63% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jocelyne Grier: Merrimack 4%Boston College 96%
The white mark is the call with her: Boston College 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Boston College without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | ||||
| Jocelyne Grier | 1.0 | 96% | 0 | 55–76 |
| Daniele Paunksnyte | 0.8 | 96% | 0 | 55–76 |
| Eunicia Salgado | 0.7 | 96% | 0 | 55–76 |
| Nuria Ausaverri | 0.6 | 96% | 0 | 55–76 |
Change is in Boston College's win chance, in points. Scores read Merrimack, then Boston College. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Merrimack 0-4LLLL
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 48.0 and allowing 80.5
Boston College 1-2LLW
- Nov 11W 86-57vs UMass Lowell
- Nov 5L 51-81at Harvard
- Nov 2L 54-64vs Holy Cross
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 63.7 and allowing 67.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Merrimack | Boston College | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 75.8 351st | 92.3 148th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.4 291st | 94.4 180th |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 84th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.7% 227th | 43.0% 315th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.1% 278th | 46.2% 220th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 30.0% 360th | 24.1% 231st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 331st | 34.4% 101st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 264th | 0.23 66th |
The widest gap: Boston College's defense (180th) against Merrimack's offense (351st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Merrimack 25, Boston College 37
- First-half margin
- Boston College by 12.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.8
- Projected second half
- Merrimack 30, Boston College 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Merrimack, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 23.0 scored, 39.2 allowed
- Boston College, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Merrimack
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie KentF | 28 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Claudia CrespoG | 28 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kristen KelleyG | 26 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Joi WilliamsG | 26 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Olivia BorsutzkiG | 26 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Claudia MarinaG | 21 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Naomi WilsonF | 15 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
Boston College
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniele PaunksnyteG | 30 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Athena TomlinsonG | 30 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jocelyne GrierG | 30 | 15.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Eunicia SalgadoF | 26 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Megan HollingsworthG | 23 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Nora ArozenaF | 17 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Nuria AusaverriF | 17 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Grace OliverF | 14 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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