Who will win Rice vs UNLV?
The model gives UNLV a 58% chance to beat Rice, with a projected score of UNLV 66, Rice 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UNLV | |||||
| LottG · 34 min | 15.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 15+ 49% | |
| RolandF · 30 min | 11.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 10+ 62% | |
| ConstantG · 29 min | 9.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 10+ 44% | |
| WashenitzG · 24 min | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 5+ 69% | |
 Rice | |||||
| BattistonG · 35 min | 12.9 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 15+ 36% | |
| AlexisG · 35 min | 9.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 42% | |
| FloresG · 25 min | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 10+ 41% | |
| AdamsG · 34 min | 8.0 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Meadow Roland: Rice 53%UNLV 47%
The white mark is the call with her: UNLV 58%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UNLV without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | ||||
| Meadow Roland | 3.4 | 47% | −11 | 65–64 |
| Jasmyn Lott | 2.4 | 50% | −8 | 65–65 |
| Marley Washenitz | 2.2 | 50% | −8 | 65–65 |
| Norah Moo | 1.8 | 52% | −6 | 64–65 |
| Rice | ||||
| Hailey Adams | 3.5 | 68% | +10 | 62–67 |
| Aniah Alexis | 2.6 | 66% | +8 | 62–67 |
| Louann Battiston | 2.2 | 64% | +6 | 62–67 |
| Lilly Taulelei | 1.9 | 63% | +5 | 63–67 |
Change is in UNLV's win chance, in points. Scores read Rice, then UNLV. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Rice 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 71-46vs Texas Southern
- Nov 8W 73-60at Richmond
- Nov 6W 69-64vs Murray St
- Nov 2W 72-34vs Hou Christian
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 51.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Rice | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.1 114th | 98.0 90th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 83.3 48th | 90.1 110th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 225th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.3% 128th | 43.3% 304th |
| Opponents' shooting | 39.5% 1st | 45.7% 192nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.2% 74th | 24.5% 260th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.3% 354th | 35.5% 57th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 237th | 0.23 81st |
The widest gap: Rice's defense (48th) against UNLV's offense (90th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Rice 30, UNLV 31
- First-half margin
- UNLV by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.3
- Projected second half
- Rice 33, UNLV 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Rice, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 23.8 allowed
- UNLV, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Rice
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louann BattistonG | 35 | 12.9 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Aniah AlexisG | 35 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Hailey AdamsG | 34 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 11+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Victoria FloresG | 25 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Jordin BlackmonG | 21 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Lilly TauleleiF | 17 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 44% | |||||
| Myah HazeltonC | 15 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 53% | |||||
| Reychel DouglasG | 13 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Missed the last game: Victoria Flores (26 min a game).
UNLV
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmyn LottG | 34 | 15.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Meadow RolandF | 30 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jayla ConstantG | 29 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Norah MooF | 26 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Marley WashenitzG | 24 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Trystan JamesF | 22 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Bergan KinnebrewG | 22 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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