Who will win SMU vs Kansas St?
The model gives Kansas State a 90% chance to beat SMU, with a projected score of Kansas St 69, SMU 53.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas St | |||||
| SidesG · 33 min | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 10+ 62% | |
| ClaessensF · 33 min | 11.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| NdeF · 28 min | 10.3 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 50% | |
| TampakouC · 17 min | 7.3 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 5+ 67% | |
 SMU | |||||
| Hagans Jr.G · 29 min | 13.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 15+ 39% | |
| JamesG · 21 min | 8.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 10+ 36% | |
| KingG · 20 min | 7.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 5+ 65% | |
| KaneF · 22 min | 5.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 5+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Taryn Sides: SMU 19%Kansas St 81%
The white mark is the call with her: Kansas St 90%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Kansas St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas St | ||||
| Taryn Sides | 4.7 | 81% | −9 | 56–66 |
| Gina Garcia | 3.5 | 84% | −6 | 55–67 |
| Tea Cleante | 1.8 | 87% | −3 | 54–68 |
| Nastja Claessens | 1.7 | 87% | −3 | 54–68 |
| SMU | ||||
| Grace Ezebilo | 1.9 | 92% | +2 | 52–70 |
| Mailien Rolf | 1.1 | 91% | +1 | 53–69 |
| Zahra King | 0.9 | 91% | +1 | 53–69 |
| Theresa Hagans Jr. | 0.9 | 91% | +1 | 53–69 |
Change is in Kansas St's win chance, in points. Scores read SMU, then Kansas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
SMU 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 69-50vs Long Island
- Nov 8W 78-65vs East Texas A&M
- Nov 5W 66-54vs Hampton
- Nov 3W 72-36vs Le Moyne
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 51.2
Kansas St 4-0WWWW
- Nov 10W 67-62vs Montana
- Nov 8W 68-39vs UT Rio Grande
- Nov 5W 61-47vs S Indiana
- Nov 2W 61-41vs Wichita St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 64.2 and allowing 47.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SMU | Kansas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.1 216th | 94.7 119th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.3 82nd | 81.9 35th |
| Possessions a game | 72.8 110th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.1% 201st | 43.5% 300th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.8% 77th | 42.4% 24th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.0% 323rd | 22.3% 81st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.7% 36th | 29.0% 345th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 360th | 0.19 314th |
The widest gap: Kansas St's defense (35th) against SMU's offense (216th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SMU 24, Kansas St 33
- First-half margin
- Kansas St by 8.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 57.8
- Projected second half
- SMU 29, Kansas St 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 64.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 26.8 allowed
- Kansas St, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 31.2 scored, 22.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theresa Hagans Jr.G | 29 | 13.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Mailien RolfG | 23 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Adja KaneF | 22 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Grace EzebiloF | 22 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 8+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Shania JamesG | 21 | 8.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Zahra KingG | 20 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Camille NesmithC | 19 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 53% | |||||
| Zoe OsbyF | 16 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 47% to play · 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 61% | |||||
Missed the last game: Zoe Osby (20 min a game).
Kansas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taryn SidesG | 33 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Nastja ClaessensF | 33 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Gina GarciaG | 31 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 41% · 5+ ast 56% | |||||
| Shaila NdeF | 28 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Tea CleanteG | 20 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mikayla ParksG | 19 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Tzoana TampakouC | 17 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 55% | |||||
| Cristina OsazuwaF | 13 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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