Who will win Nicholls vs SMU?
The model gives SMU a 92% chance to beat Nicholls, with a projected score of SMU 70, Nicholls 52.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SMU | |||||
| Hagans Jr.G · 29 min | 16.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 15+ 58% | |
| JamesG · 21 min | 10.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 10+ 51% | |
| KingG · 20 min | 8.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 10+ 39% | |
| KaneF · 22 min | 6.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 5+ 60% | |
 Nicholls | |||||
| CurtisG · 33 min | 14.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 15+ 47% | |
| MatthewsF · 23 min | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| HoofF · 29 min | 8.6 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 38% | |
| BennettG · 21 min | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Grace Ezebilo: Nicholls 11%SMU 89%
The white mark is the call with her: SMU 92%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | SMU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | ||||
| Grace Ezebilo | 1.9 | 89% | −3 | 53–69 |
| Mailien Rolf | 1.1 | 90% | −2 | 53–69 |
| Zahra King | 0.9 | 91% | −1 | 53–69 |
| Theresa Hagans Jr. | 0.9 | 91% | −1 | 53–69 |
Change is in SMU's win chance, in points. Scores read Nicholls, then SMU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Nicholls 2-2WLLW
- Nov 10W 83-40vs LSU Alexandria
- Nov 8L 48-74at Georgia
- Nov 5L 44-68at Iowa State
- Nov 2W 83-54vs Dillard
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 64.5 and allowing 59.0
SMU 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 69-50vs Long Island
- Nov 8W 78-65vs East Texas A&M
- Nov 5W 66-54vs Hampton
- Nov 3W 72-36vs Le Moyne
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 51.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Nicholls | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.1 293rd | 88.1 216th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.2 199th | 88.3 82nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 72.8 110th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.9% 317th | 45.1% 201st |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 197th | 43.8% 77th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.4% 174th | 26.0% 323rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 228th | 36.7% 36th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 199th | 0.16 360th |
The widest gap: SMU's defense (82nd) against Nicholls's offense (293rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Nicholls 24, SMU 34
- First-half margin
- SMU by 10.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 57.8
- Projected second half
- Nicholls 28, SMU 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 64.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Nicholls, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 30.8 scored, 25.0 allowed
- SMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 26.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Nicholls
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Britiya CurtisG | 33 | 14.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 44% to play · 15+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Anyra WilsonG | 30 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Charnelle HoofF | 29 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Laryn ScottF | 26 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 44% | |||||
| Shelcie LeBlancG | 25 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jasmine MatthewsF | 23 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Danielle BennettG | 21 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Tyanna StewartG | 18 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
Missed the last game: Britiya Curtis (40 min a game) and Makayla Charles (15 min a game).
SMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theresa Hagans Jr.G | 29 | 16.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Mailien RolfG | 23 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Adja KaneF | 22 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Grace EzebiloF | 22 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 10+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Shania JamesG | 21 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Zahra KingG | 20 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Camille NesmithC | 19 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Zoe OsbyF | 16 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 47% to play · 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Zoe Osby (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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