Vanderbilt v Iowa
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Tyson Events Center. Vanderbilt AP 8, our rank 7 · 4-0; Iowa AP 10, our rank 11 · 3-1.
Who will win Vanderbilt vs Iowa?
The model gives Vanderbilt a 58% chance to beat Iowa, with a projected score of Vanderbilt 77, Iowa 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | |||||
| BlakesG · 30 min | 19.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 20+ 48% | |
| WoolfolkF · 21 min | 15.9 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 15+ 54% | |
| GalvanG · 30 min | 13.5 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 15+ 40% | |
| AtamahG · 26 min | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 48% | |
| Iowa | |||||
| CarnegieG · 29 min | 15.8 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 15+ 54% | |
| HeidenC · 24 min | 14.4 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 45% | |
| WrightG · 31 min | 11.8 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 10+ 61% | |
| WoliczkoF · 26 min | 11.1 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 56% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mikayla Blakes: Vanderbilt 32%Iowa 68%
The white mark is the call with her: Vanderbilt 58%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Vanderbilt without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | ||||
| Mikayla Blakes | 8.0 | 32% | −26 | 73–78 |
| Aubrey Galvan | 5.8 | 39% | −19 | 74–77 |
| Mia Woolfolk | 4.7 | 42% | −16 | 74–77 |
| Vernell Atamah | 3.7 | 45% | −13 | 75–76 |
| Iowa | ||||
| Ava Heiden | 5.8 | 75% | +17 | 79–71 |
| Dani Carnegie | 5.3 | 74% | +16 | 79–72 |
| Chazadi Wright | 5.1 | 73% | +15 | 79–72 |
| Amari Whiting | 3.6 | 69% | +11 | 78–72 |
Change is in Vanderbilt's win chance, in points. Scores read Vanderbilt, then Iowa. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Vanderbilt 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 101-59vs Western KYDidn't cover −46.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 9W 102-50vs Morehead StDidn't cover −52.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 4W 100-42vs Queens
- Nov 2W 112-53vs Lipscomb
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 103.8 and allowing 51.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Iowa 3-1WWLW
- Nov 12W 78-40vs Northern IowaCovered −32.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 8L 79-91at UConnCovered +13.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 5W 80-39vs E Illinois
- Nov 2W 73-45vs Towson
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 77.5 and allowing 53.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Vanderbilt | Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 119.9 4th | 111.6 16th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 81.6 31st | 76.1 9th |
| Possessions a game | 74.0 47th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.6% 2nd | 49.8% 14th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 131st | 43.8% 77th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.1% 25th | 23.2% 156th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 38.6% 7th | 34.1% 117th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 283rd | 0.19 312th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Vanderbilt 36, Iowa 35
- First-half margin
- Vanderbilt by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.5
- Projected second half
- Vanderbilt 40, Iowa 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Vanderbilt, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 64.3 scored, 20.0 allowed
- Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 38.5 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Vanderbilt
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikayla BlakesG | 30 | 19.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 20+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Aubrey GalvanG | 30 | 13.5 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Vernell AtamahG | 26 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Olivia JonesG | 25 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Madison GreeneG | 22 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Mia WoolfolkF | 21 | 15.9 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 44% | |||||
| Jhai JohnsonF | 16 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Aiyana MitchellF | 14 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 58% | |||||
Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chazadi WrightG | 31 | 11.8 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Dani CarnegieG | 29 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| McKenna WoliczkoF | 26 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Amari WhitingG | 24 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ava HeidenC | 24 | 14.4 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Taylor StremlowG | 19 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Journey HoustonG | 17 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Jocelyn FaisonG | 15 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…