Who won Towson vs Iowa?
Final: Iowa 73, Towson 45. Before tip-off the model gave Iowa a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 40.3 points for Iowa. Dani Carnegie scored 21 for Iowa; Eva Wilkerson had 15 for Towson.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Ava Heiden: Towson 1%Iowa 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Iowa >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Iowa without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iowa | ||||
| Ava Heiden | 5.8 | 99% | −1 | 64–99 |
| Dani Carnegie | 5.3 | 99% | −1 | 64–99 |
| Chazadi Wright | 5.1 | 99% | −1 | 64–99 |
| Amari Whiting | 3.6 | >99% | 0 | 63–100 |
Change is in Iowa's win chance, in points. Scores read Towson, then Iowa. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Towson | Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.9 221st | 111.6 16th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.1 256th | 76.1 9th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.6% 324th | 49.8% 14th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.7% 189th | 43.8% 77th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.2% 29th | 23.2% 156th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 256th | 34.1% 117th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 289th | 0.19 312th |
The widest gap: Iowa's offense (16th) against Towson's defense (256th), of 363 teams.
First half
Iowa led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 13.2 points and the total by 21.4.
- At halftime
- Towson 23, Iowa 33
- Projected halftime score
- Towson 27, Iowa 50
- First-half margin
- Iowa by 23.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Towson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoli KhalilG | 35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Ava RenningerG | 30 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Thalia ShepardG | 30 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Eva WilkersonG | 29 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| Asya Lara BarnesG | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Diamond WattersF | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton WhiteF | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Nadeya RegalaG | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Viki MatuleviciusG | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani CarnegieG | 30 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Chazadi WrightG | 29 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| McKenna WoliczkoF | 24 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Amari WhitingG | 24 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Taylor StremlowG | 22 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Journey HoustonG | 20 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Ava HeidenC | 19 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Layla HaysC | 17 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jocelyn FaisonG | 15 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 |