Creighton 73, S Dakota St 71
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at First Bank & Trust Arena. Creighton our rank 59 · 2-1; S Dakota St our rank 65 · 1-2.
Who won Creighton vs S Dakota St?
Final: Creighton 73, South Dakota State 71. Before tip-off the model gave Creighton a 24% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 9.8 points for South Dakota State. Ava Zediker scored 21 for Creighton; Audrey Shindelar had 15 for S Dakota St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Brooklyn Meyer: Creighton 39%S Dakota St 61%
The white mark is the call with her: S Dakota St 76%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | S Dakota St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dakota St | ||||
| Brooklyn Meyer | 6.0 | 61% | −15 | 81–85 |
| Emilee Fox | 2.2 | 71% | −5 | 79–87 |
| Mahli Abdouch | 2.0 | 71% | −5 | 79–87 |
| Katie Vasecka | 1.8 | 72% | −4 | 79–87 |
| Creighton | ||||
| Ava Zediker | 3.7 | 84% | +8 | 76–90 |
| Nia Holloway | 3.5 | 83% | +7 | 77–90 |
| Allison Heathcock | 2.8 | 82% | +6 | 77–89 |
| Neleigh Gessert | 2.6 | 81% | +5 | 77–89 |
Change is in S Dakota St's win chance, in points. Scores read Creighton, then S Dakota St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Creighton
No games yet this season: this is its first.
S Dakota St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Creighton | S Dakota St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.0 89th | 106.2 35th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.9 43rd | 92.4 138th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 193rd | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.2% 264th | 48.1% 48th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.5% 174th | 48.4% 325th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.9% 15th | 22.5% 97th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 250th | 31.9% 230th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 62nd | 0.18 334th |
The widest gap: Creighton's offense (89th) against S Dakota St's defense (138th), of 363 teams.
First half
S Dakota St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.4 points and the total by 14.9.
- At halftime
- Creighton 29, S Dakota St 35
- Projected halftime score
- Creighton 37, S Dakota St 42
- First-half margin
- S Dakota St by 5.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Creighton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allison HeathcockG | 32 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 2 |
| Nia HollowayF | 31 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Neleigh GessertG | 29 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Ava ZedikerG | 23 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Mya MooreG | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Norah GessertG | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall McGeeG | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kate AmelotteG | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jayla WilliamsG | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
S Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie VaseckaG | 33 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Brooklyn MeyerF | 30 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Emilee FoxG | 29 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Mahli AbdouchG | 23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Audrey ShindelarG | 22 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Hadley ThulG | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Claire SheppardF | 21 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| Hilary BehrensF | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Maggie HartwigF | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |