Creighton at Northern Iowa
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at McLeod Center. Creighton our rank 59 · 2-1; Northern Iowa our rank 141 · 1-2.
Who will win Creighton vs Northern Iowa?
The model gives Creighton a 73% chance to beat Northern Iowa, with a projected score of Creighton 66, Northern Iowa 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creighton | |||||
| ZedikerG · 33 min | 16.0 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 15+ 55% | |
| GessertG · 25 min | 10.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 54% | |
| MooreG · 23 min | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 5+ 64% | |
| HeathcockG · 32 min | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 5+ 63% | |
| Northern Iowa | |||||
| TwedtG · 29 min | 12.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 15+ 35% | |
| JaegerF · 27 min | 6.8 | 8.3 | 2.0 | 5+ 63% | |
| LevinG · 26 min | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 5+ 53% | |
| TuttleG · 27 min | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 5+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ava Zediker: Creighton 62%Northern Iowa 38%
The white mark is the call with her: Creighton 73%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Creighton without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creighton | ||||
| Ava Zediker | 3.7 | 62% | −11 | 65–61 |
| Nia Holloway | 3.5 | 63% | −10 | 65–61 |
| Allison Heathcock | 2.8 | 65% | −8 | 65–60 |
| Neleigh Gessert | 2.6 | 66% | −7 | 65–60 |
| Northern Iowa | ||||
| Callie Levin | 1.9 | 78% | +5 | 67–58 |
| Jenna Twedt | 1.9 | 78% | +5 | 67–58 |
| Elise Jaeger | 1.7 | 77% | +4 | 67–58 |
| Kaylynn Janes | 0.7 | 75% | +2 | 67–59 |
Change is in Creighton's win chance, in points. Scores read Creighton, then Northern Iowa. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Creighton 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 49-54vs South Dakota
- Nov 9W 66-60at N Dakota St
- Nov 2W 73-71at S Dakota St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 62.7 and allowing 61.7
Northern Iowa 1-2WLL
- Nov 12L 40-78at IowaDidn't cover +32.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 6L 54-76at S Dakota St
- Nov 2W 67-59vs St Thomas
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 53.7 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Creighton | Northern Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.0 89th | 90.4 168th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.9 43rd | 90.0 109th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 193rd | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.2% 264th | 42.8% 319th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.5% 174th | 48.8% 339th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.9% 15th | 24.1% 235th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 250th | 31.9% 231st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 62nd | 0.22 152nd |
The widest gap: Creighton's defense (43rd) against Northern Iowa's offense (168th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Creighton 32, Northern Iowa 28
- First-half margin
- Creighton by 4.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.4
- Projected second half
- Creighton 35, Northern Iowa 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 65.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Creighton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 26.3 scored, 26.3 allowed
- Northern Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 21.7 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Creighton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava ZedikerG | 33 | 16.0 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Allison HeathcockG | 32 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Neleigh GessertG | 25 | 10.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Nia HollowayF | 25 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Mya MooreG | 23 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Norah GessertG | 20 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Kendall McGeeG | 17 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Kate AmelotteG | 12 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Northern Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenna TwedtG | 29 | 12.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Elise JaegerF | 27 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Abby TuttleG | 27 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Callie LevinG | 26 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Maren SchmotzerF | 21 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Kaylynn JanesF | 18 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Mya NicholsonG | 15 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Lauren WalkerG | 12 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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