Iowa State at Northern Iowa
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at McLeod Center. Iowa State our rank 58 · 4-0; Northern Iowa our rank 141 · 1-2.
Who will win Iowa State vs Northern Iowa?
The model gives Iowa State a 74% chance to beat Northern Iowa, with a projected score of Iowa State 71, Northern Iowa 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | |||||
| TurnsekF · 28 min | 15.0 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 15+ 49% | |
| BabbittG · 25 min | 13.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 15+ 37% | |
| ConnorG · 25 min | 8.4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 10+ 36% | |
| BessetteG · 20 min | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 34% | |
| Northern Iowa | |||||
| TwedtG · 29 min | 13.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 15+ 39% | |
| JaegerF · 27 min | 7.1 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 5+ 66% | |
| LevinG · 26 min | 6.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 5+ 56% | |
| TuttleG · 27 min | 5.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 5+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ashleigh Connor: Iowa State 65%Northern Iowa 35%
The white mark is the call with her: Iowa State 74%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Iowa State without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | ||||
| Ashleigh Connor | 2.9 | 65% | −9 | 70–65 |
| Sienna Harvey | 2.8 | 66% | −8 | 70–65 |
| Mya Babbitt | 2.4 | 67% | −7 | 70–65 |
| Arianna Jackson | 2.3 | 67% | −7 | 70–65 |
| Northern Iowa | ||||
| Callie Levin | 1.9 | 78% | +4 | 72–62 |
| Jenna Twedt | 1.9 | 78% | +4 | 72–62 |
| Elise Jaeger | 1.7 | 78% | +4 | 72–63 |
| Kaylynn Janes | 0.7 | 75% | +1 | 71–63 |
Change is in Iowa State's win chance, in points. Scores read Iowa State, then Northern Iowa. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Iowa State 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 78.0 and allowing 55.2
Northern Iowa 1-2WLL
- Nov 12L 40-78at IowaDidn't cover +32.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 6L 54-76at S Dakota St
- Nov 2W 67-59vs St Thomas
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 53.7 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Iowa State | Northern Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.1 50th | 90.4 168th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 87.8 72nd | 90.0 109th |
| Possessions a game | 73.0 96th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.1% 89th | 42.8% 319th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.3% 59th | 48.8% 339th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.8% 52nd | 24.1% 235th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 262nd | 31.9% 231st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 202nd | 0.22 152nd |
The widest gap: Iowa State's defense (72nd) against Northern Iowa's offense (168th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Iowa State 34, Northern Iowa 30
- First-half margin
- Iowa State by 4.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.8
- Projected second half
- Iowa State 37, Northern Iowa 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Iowa State, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 40.0 scored, 26.0 allowed
- Northern Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 21.7 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Iowa State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sienna HarveyG | 30 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Tjasa TurnsekF | 28 | 15.0 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Arianna JacksonG | 27 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Mya BabbittG | 25 | 13.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ashleigh ConnorG | 25 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Alex-Anne BessetteG | 20 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Xiao ZhangC | 14 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
| Gift EzekielF | 14 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
Northern Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenna TwedtG | 29 | 13.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Elise JaegerF | 27 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 9+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Abby TuttleG | 27 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Callie LevinG | 26 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Maren SchmotzerF | 21 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Kaylynn JanesF | 18 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Mya NicholsonG | 15 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Lauren WalkerG | 12 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…