St Thomas 59, Northern Iowa 67
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at McLeod Center. St Thomas our rank 184 · 2-1; Northern Iowa our rank 141 · 1-2.
Who won St Thomas vs Northern Iowa?
Final: Northern Iowa 67, St. Thomas 59. Before tip-off the model gave Northern Iowa a 77% chance to win, with a projected margin of 10.3 points for Northern Iowa. Abby Tuttle scored 16 for Northern Iowa; Alyssa Sand had 19 for St Thomas.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Callie Levin: St Thomas 27%Northern Iowa 73%
The white mark is the call with her: Northern Iowa 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Northern Iowa without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | ||||
| Callie Levin | 1.9 | 73% | −4 | 74–82 |
| Jenna Twedt | 1.9 | 73% | −4 | 74–82 |
| Elise Jaeger | 1.7 | 73% | −4 | 74–82 |
| Kaylynn Janes | 0.7 | 76% | −1 | 73–83 |
| St Thomas | ||||
| Alyssa Sand | 2.1 | 82% | +5 | 72–84 |
| Mikayla Werner | 0.9 | 79% | +2 | 72–83 |
| Savannah McGowan | 0.6 | 78% | +1 | 72–83 |
Change is in Northern Iowa's win chance, in points. Scores read St Thomas, then Northern Iowa. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
St Thomas
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Northern Iowa
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Thomas | Northern Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.3 170th | 90.4 168th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.1 195th | 90.0 109th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.8% 154th | 42.8% 319th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 197th | 48.8% 339th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.4% 180th | 24.1% 235th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.8% 87th | 31.9% 231st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 293rd | 0.22 152nd |
The widest gap: Northern Iowa's defense (109th) against St Thomas's offense (170th), of 363 teams.
First half
Northern Iowa led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.9 points and the total by 19.8.
- At halftime
- St Thomas 26, Northern Iowa 28
- Projected halftime score
- St Thomas 34, Northern Iowa 40
- First-half margin
- Northern Iowa by 5.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
St Thomas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa SandF | 32 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Mikayla WernerG | 31 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Samantha VollG | 30 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jayci RathF | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Laura HaugeG | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Savannah McGowanF | 19 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Abbey VallanceG | 19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Autumn McCallF | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Maya KovacicG | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Northern Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maren SchmotzerF | 34 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Abby TuttleG | 31 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Callie LevinG | 31 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Jenna TwedtG | 29 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Elise JaegerF | 24 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| Callie OaklandF | 18 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Kaylynn JanesF | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Lauren WalkerG | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mya NicholsonG | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |