Who will win St Thomas vs Army?
The model gives Army a 83% chance to beat St. Thomas, with a projected score of Army 71, St Thomas 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Army | |||||
| SmithF · 30 min | 17.2 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 15+ 62% | |
| TadeG · 33 min | 13.7 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 15+ 41% | |
| ReardonF · 22 min | 10.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 52% | |
| WilsonG · 28 min | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 5+ 69% | |
 St Thomas | |||||
| SandF · 25 min | 9.8 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| WernerG · 27 min | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 33% | |
| VollG · 23 min | 6.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 5+ 58% | |
| HaugeG · 24 min | 5.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kya Smith: St Thomas 25%Army 75%
The white mark is the call with her: Army 83%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Army without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army | ||||
| Kya Smith | 3.6 | 75% | −8 | 60–69 |
| Camryn Tade | 2.9 | 77% | −6 | 60–70 |
| Taylor Wilson | 1.1 | 81% | −2 | 59–70 |
| Reganne Reardon | 1.1 | 81% | −2 | 59–70 |
| St Thomas | ||||
| Alyssa Sand | 2.1 | 87% | +4 | 57–72 |
| Mikayla Werner | 0.9 | 85% | +2 | 58–71 |
| Savannah McGowan | 0.6 | 84% | +1 | 58–71 |
Change is in Army's win chance, in points. Scores read St Thomas, then Army. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
St Thomas 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 76-29vs St. Catherine
- Nov 4W 77-43vs Bethel (MN)
- Nov 2L 59-67at Northern Iowa
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 70.7 and allowing 46.3
Army 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 80-75vs George Mason
- Nov 5W 81-56at Brown
- Nov 2W 81-28vs St. Thomas Aquinas
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 80.7 and allowing 53.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Thomas | Army | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.3 170th | 97.5 94th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.1 195th | 92.4 137th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 69.9 341st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.8% 154th | 47.7% 58th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 197th | 44.2% 107th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.4% 180th | 22.6% 102nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.8% 87th | 31.3% 262nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 293rd | 0.24 44th |
The widest gap: Army's offense (94th) against St Thomas's defense (195th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- St Thomas 27, Army 34
- First-half margin
- Army by 7.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.4
- Projected second half
- St Thomas 31, Army 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- St Thomas, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.5 scored, 23.5 allowed
- Army, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 21.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
St Thomas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikayla WernerG | 27 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Alyssa SandF | 25 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Laura HaugeG | 24 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 36% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Samantha VollG | 23 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 25% to play · 5+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jayci RathF | 22 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Maya KovacicG | 21 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Autumn McCallF | 20 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Abbey VallanceG | 18 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Samantha Voll (30 min a game).
Army
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camryn TadeG | 33 | 13.7 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Kya SmithF | 30 | 17.2 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 9+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Fiona HastickG | 28 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Brooke WilsonG | 28 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Taylor WilsonG | 27 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Reganne ReardonF | 22 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Audrey AnneeG | 16 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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