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Probable Stats / Women's / Saturday, November 14

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California at Santa Barbara

Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at The Thunderdome. California our rank 26 · 4-0; Santa Barbara our rank 98 · 3-0.

Who will win California vs Santa Barbara?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives California a 80% chance to beat UC Santa Barbara, with a projected score of California 73, Santa Barbara 62.

To winCalifornia 80%Santa Barbara 20%
Projected score73–62California, then Santa Barbara
Margin10.7California · no line posted
Total135.0no line posted
First half35–29California ahead 72%
California by 40by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10Santa Barbara by 20Model: California by 10.7California by 40by 20EvenSanta Barbara by 20Model: California by 10.7

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
California
TwidaleG · 32 min15.04.83.215+ 49%
DowellG · 23 min12.05.42.610+ 62%
BarnesF · 28 min9.84.11.410+ 47%
MaulG · 26 min9.55.72.110+ 44%
Santa Barbara
BorterF · 29 min12.12.41.710+ 63%
Zonzon-HuygheG · 27 min9.54.31.610+ 45%
FloresG · 21 min8.82.60.810+ 39%
NaroG · 28 min7.82.64.210+ 32%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Lulu Twidale: California 69%Santa Barbara 31%

The white mark is the call with her: California 80%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsCalifornia without herChangeProjected score
California
Lulu Twidale4.669%−1171–64
Gisella Maul4.270%−1071–64
Shannon Dowell3.771%−971–64
Taylor Barnes3.771%−971–64
Santa Barbara
Zoe Borter2.385%+574–61
Naomy Zonzon-Huyghe1.884%+474–61
Olivia Anderson1.884%+474–61
Maddie Naro1.483%+374–61

Change is in California's win chance, in points. Scores read California, then Santa Barbara. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    California 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 12W 78-64vs Charleston
    2. Nov 8W 87-65vs San Francisco
    3. Nov 5W 100-46vs Long Beach St
    4. Nov 2W 80-58vs Washington St
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 86.2 and allowing 58.2

    Santa Barbara 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 9W 92-48vs Seattle U
    2. Nov 5W 58-54at Pepperdine
    3. Nov 3W 101-26vs UC Santa Cruz
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 83.7 and allowing 42.7

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    CaliforniaSanta Barbara
    Points scored per 100 possessions106.7 30th97.6 92nd
    Points allowed per 10081.2 28th90.7 120th
    Possessions a game72.7 115th70.1 334th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)47.5% 70th49.4% 18th
    Opponents' shooting44.5% 122nd44.1% 99th
    Turnovers, share of possessions21.8% 50th22.4% 91st
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses31.9% 226th35.0% 80th
    Free throws per shot0.21 186th0.19 314th

    The widest gap: California's offense (30th) against Santa Barbara's defense (120th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    California 35, Santa Barbara 29
    First-half margin
    California by 6.2
    First-half points, both teams
    64.0
    Projected second half
    California 38, Santa Barbara 33
    Second-half points, both teams
    71.0
    Tied at the half
    4%
    California, first halves so far
    Led 4 of 4 · 40.5 scored, 24.2 allowed
    Santa Barbara, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 24.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    California

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Lulu TwidaleG3215.04.83.22.5
    15+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 49% · 3+ threes 43%
    Taylor BarnesF289.84.11.41.0
    10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 56%
    Ruby PerkinsG276.83.82.70.8
    5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 51%
    Gisella MaulG269.55.72.11.2
    10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 59%
    Shannon DowellG2312.05.42.60.6
    10+ pts 62% · 3+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 45%
    Albina SylaC206.65.91.00.0
    5+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 28%
    Zara RussellF164.83.10.60.4
    5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 33%
    Jovana JevtovicC146.43.30.50.2
    5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 17%

    Santa Barbara

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Zoe BorterF2912.12.41.71.4
    10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 47%
    Maddie NaroG287.82.64.21.0
    10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 57%
    Naomy Zonzon-HuygheG279.54.31.60.6
    10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 46%
    Karisma FloresG218.82.60.81.3
    10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 35%
    Nicole SteinerF217.55.50.80.0
    5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 20%
    Chauncey AndersenG186.14.20.70.5
    5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 35%
    Mauriana Hashemian-OrrG173.02.32.00.2
    5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 56%
    Olivia AndersonF165.32.90.30.3
    5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 28%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 14

    All games
    1. 2 PMprojected 76-59Minnesota vs Kansas St, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 62-70Rhode Island at St John's, women's: game page
    3. 2 PMprojected 69-67Wisconsin at Green Bay, women's: game page
    4. 4 PMprojected 74-65North Carolina at Penn, women's: game page
    5. 4:30 PMprojected 72-62Nebraska vs Kansas, women's: game page
    6. 6 PMprojected 69-71Northwestern vs App State, women's: game page
    California next: vs Hawai'i, Fri, Nov 20 · 96%Santa Barbara next: vs Utah Tech, Fri, Nov 20 · 98%California: schedule and oddsSanta Barbara: schedule and odds