Washington St 58, California 80
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Haas Pavilion. Washington St our rank 81 · 1-2; California our rank 26 · 4-0.
Who won Washington St vs California?
Final: California 80, Washington State 58. Before tip-off the model gave California a 96% chance to win, with a projected margin of 24.8 points for California. Lulu Twidale scored 26 for California; Eleonora Villa had 20 for Washington St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Lulu Twidale: Washington St 7%California 93%
The white mark is the call with her: California 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | California without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | ||||
| Lulu Twidale | 4.6 | 93% | −3 | 71–91 |
| Gisella Maul | 4.2 | 93% | −3 | 71–92 |
| Shannon Dowell | 3.7 | 94% | −2 | 71–92 |
| Taylor Barnes | 3.7 | 94% | −2 | 71–92 |
| Washington St | ||||
| Eleonora Villa | 3.7 | 98% | +2 | 67–96 |
| Charlotte Abraham | 2.2 | 97% | +1 | 68–95 |
| Mackenzie Chatfield | 1.9 | 97% | +1 | 68–95 |
| Malia Ruud | 1.8 | 97% | +1 | 68–95 |
Change is in California's win chance, in points. Scores read Washington St, then California. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Washington St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
California
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Washington St | California | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.7 102nd | 106.7 30th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 86.0 60th | 81.2 28th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.2% 131st | 47.5% 70th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.5% 63rd | 44.5% 122nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.1% 24th | 21.8% 50th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.1% 311th | 31.9% 226th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.17 347th | 0.21 186th |
The widest gap: California's defense (28th) against Washington St's offense (102nd), of 363 teams.
First half
California led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.3 points and the total by 16.1.
- At halftime
- Washington St 24, California 37
- Projected halftime score
- Washington St 31, California 46
- First-half margin
- California by 14.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Washington St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eleonora VillaG | 35 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Mackenzie ChatfieldG | 27 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Charlotte AbrahamG | 25 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Malia RuudF | 24 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Elizaveta FilchaginaF | 19 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Tanja ValancicF | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Aicha BahG | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex CovillC | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Malvina HaziriG | 16 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
California
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lulu TwidaleG | 34 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
| Ruby PerkinsG | 30 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Taylor BarnesF | 28 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Gisella MaulG | 27 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Shannon DowellG | 23 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Albina SylaC | 17 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Naya OjukwuF | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Zara RussellF | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jovana JevtovicC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |