Who won Davidson vs Columbia?
Final: Columbia 71, Davidson 65. Before tip-off the model gave Columbia a 81% chance to win, with a projected margin of 12.0 points for Columbia. Mary Ashley Stevenson scored 20 for Columbia; Katie Donovan had 22 for Davidson.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Riley Weiss: Davidson 31%Columbia 69%
The white mark is the call with her: Columbia 81%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Columbia without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Columbia | ||||
| Riley Weiss | 5.0 | 69% | −12 | 75–82 |
| Mia Broom | 3.5 | 73% | −8 | 75–83 |
| Fliss Henderson | 3.0 | 74% | −7 | 74–84 |
| Mary Ashley Stevenson | 2.6 | 75% | −6 | 74–84 |
 Davidson | ||||
| Katie Donovan | 3.1 | 86% | +5 | 71–87 |
| Kyra Bruyndoncx | 2.6 | 85% | +4 | 72–86 |
| Ines Garcia Monje | 2.1 | 85% | +4 | 72–86 |
| Emilie Bessell | 2.0 | 84% | +3 | 72–86 |
Change is in Columbia's win chance, in points. Scores read Davidson, then Columbia. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Davidson
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Columbia
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Davidson | Columbia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.2 66th | 104.8 40th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.5 85th | 86.6 63rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 327th | 72.2 156th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.7% 226th | 47.2% 87th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.8% 306th | 44.8% 140th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.0% 20th | 23.8% 210th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 226th | 35.5% 57th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 147th | 0.20 252nd |
The widest gap: Columbia's offense (40th) against Davidson's defense (85th), of 363 teams.
First half
Columbia led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.9 points and the total by 6.9.
- At halftime
- Davidson 33, Columbia 35
- Projected halftime score
- Davidson 34, Columbia 41
- First-half margin
- Columbia by 6.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Davidson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie DonovanG | 37 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| Kyra BruyndoncxG | 36 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Elena Alvarez CastellanosG | 32 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Emilie BessellG | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Asha NightingaleF | 24 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Lilli OnnelaG | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ines Garcia MonjeF | 16 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Jasmine TimmersonG | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sharni ReisingerG | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Columbia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia BroomG | 36 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Fliss HendersonG | 32 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 1 |
| Riley WeissG | 31 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hilke FeldrappeF | 29 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Mary Ashley StevensonF | 27 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasi SimmonsG | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Eirny ErinughaF | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chloe DixG | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mathis DritzF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |