Oklahoma 91, North Carolina 79
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 2:50 PM ET at Adidas Arena. Oklahoma AP 14, our rank 13 · 3-0; North Carolina AP 23, our rank 28 · 1-2.
Who won Oklahoma vs North Carolina?
Final: Oklahoma 91, North Carolina 79. Before tip-off the model gave Oklahoma a 57% chance to win, with a projected margin of 2.3 points for Oklahoma. LeeLee Bell scored 25 for Oklahoma; Kate Harpring had 21 for North Carolina.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Sahara Williams: Oklahoma 41%North Carolina 59%
The white mark is the call with her: Oklahoma 57%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oklahoma without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | ||||
| Sahara Williams | 5.6 | 41% | −16 | 84–88 |
| Brooklyn Stewart | 4.0 | 45% | −12 | 85–87 |
| Caya Smith | 4.0 | 45% | −12 | 85–87 |
| Isimenme Ozzy-Momodu | 4.0 | 45% | −12 | 85–87 |
| North Carolina | ||||
| Achol Akot | 4.4 | 69% | +12 | 89–83 |
| Nyla Brooks | 4.0 | 68% | +11 | 89–83 |
| Reniya Kelly | 3.2 | 65% | +8 | 89–83 |
| Sophie Burrows | 2.6 | 64% | +7 | 88–84 |
Change is in Oklahoma's win chance, in points. Scores read Oklahoma, then North Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Oklahoma
No games yet this season: this is its first.
North Carolina
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oklahoma | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.7 10th | 107.3 27th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 79.2 18th | 82.2 38th |
| Possessions a game | 76.3 5th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.8% 56th | 46.1% 137th |
| Opponents' shooting | 41.6% 18th | 45.5% 174th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 182nd | 22.6% 106th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 41.8% 1st | 37.5% 24th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 260th | 0.17 355th |
First half
Oklahoma led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 4.6.
- At halftime
- Oklahoma 39, North Carolina 38
- Projected halftime score
- Oklahoma 41, North Carolina 40
- First-half margin
- Oklahoma by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 81.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Oklahoma
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahara WilliamsF | 31 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| LeeLee BellF | 29 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Aaliyah ChavezG | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Jordan SpeiserG | 25 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Sa'Myah SmithF | 20 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Caya SmithF | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Keziah LoftonG | 16 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Brooklyn StewartF | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Isimenme Ozzy-MomoduC | 14 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
North Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate HarpringG | 34 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| Reniya KellyG | 33 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
| Nyla BrooksG | 30 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Achol AkotF | 24 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
| Sophie BurrowsG | 24 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| Gabby WhiteG | 17 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Taissa QueirozG | 14 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Noelle BofiaC | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Laila HullG | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |