North Carolina at Penn
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at The Palestra. North Carolina AP 23, our rank 28 · 1-2; Penn our rank 91 · 4-0.
Who will win North Carolina vs Penn?
The model gives North Carolina a 77% chance to beat Pennsylvania, with a projected score of North Carolina 74, Penn 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | |||||
| BrooksG · 25 min | 12.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 64% | |
| HarpringG · 26 min | 11.8 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| AkotF · 24 min | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 10+ 45% | |
| KellyG · 26 min | 6.4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 5+ 60% | |
| Penn | |||||
| NjikeC · 27 min | 11.8 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 61% | |
| ThatcherG · 33 min | 11.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| GayleG · 30 min | 11.2 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| SuttleG · 29 min | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Achol Akot: North Carolina 64%Penn 36%
The white mark is the call with her: North Carolina 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | North Carolina without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | ||||
| Achol Akot | 4.4 | 64% | −13 | 72–67 |
| Nyla Brooks | 4.0 | 66% | −11 | 72–67 |
| Reniya Kelly | 3.2 | 68% | −9 | 72–66 |
| Sophie Burrows | 2.6 | 70% | −7 | 72–66 |
| Penn | ||||
| Katie Collins | 2.5 | 82% | +5 | 75–64 |
| Tina Njike | 2.5 | 82% | +5 | 75–64 |
| Mataya Gayle | 1.9 | 81% | +4 | 75–64 |
| Brooke Suttle | 1.5 | 80% | +3 | 75–64 |
Change is in North Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read North Carolina, then Penn. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
North Carolina 1-2LLW
- Nov 11W 109-40vs NC CentralCovered −46.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 8L 39-84vs South CarolinaDidn't cover +16.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2L 79-91vs Oklahoma
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 75.7 and allowing 71.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| North Carolina | Penn | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.3 27th | 102.0 61st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.2 38th | 93.8 169th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 193rd | 69.5 352nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.1% 137th | 48.3% 40th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.5% 174th | 45.9% 209th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.6% 106th | 21.5% 35th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.5% 24th | 34.7% 91st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.17 355th | 0.17 352nd |
The widest gap: North Carolina's offense (27th) against Penn's defense (169th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- North Carolina 35, Penn 30
- First-half margin
- North Carolina by 5.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.7
- Projected second half
- North Carolina 38, Penn 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- North Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 36.3 scored, 29.3 allowed
- Penn, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 38.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
North Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate HarpringG | 26 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Reniya KellyG | 26 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Nyla BrooksG | 25 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ threes 41% | |||||
| Achol AkotF | 24 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Blanca ThomasC | 21 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Gabby WhiteG | 18 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Sophie BurrowsG | 16 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Taissa QueirozG | 14 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
Penn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel ThatcherG | 33 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Katie CollinsF | 31 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Mataya GayleG | 30 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Brooke SuttleG | 29 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Tina NjikeC | 27 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Gabriella KelleyF | 14 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Ashna TambeG | 10 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Christina PhamG | 10 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ ast 15% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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