Who will win Wisconsin vs Green Bay?
The model gives Wisconsin a 56% chance to beat Green Bay, with a projected score of Wisconsin 69, Green Bay 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wisconsin | |||||
| MallegniG · 25 min | 13.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 15+ 39% | |
| DealG · 26 min | 11.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 10+ 60% | |
| ShepleeG · 23 min | 9.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 43% | |
| CourthiauG · 25 min | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 10+ 31% | |
 Green Bay | |||||
| SkorupskiG · 36 min | 16.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 15+ 58% | |
| SchultzF · 18 min | 10.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 10+ 50% | |
| OuimetteG · 27 min | 9.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 48% | |
| BuwaldaF · 21 min | 8.8 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 10+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Addie Deal: Wisconsin 42%Green Bay 58%
The white mark is the call with her: Wisconsin 56%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Wisconsin without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | ||||
| Addie Deal | 3.9 | 42% | −14 | 67–69 |
| Teagan Mallegni | 3.7 | 43% | −13 | 67–69 |
| Shay Bollin | 2.7 | 46% | −10 | 68–69 |
| Laci Steele | 2.5 | 47% | −9 | 68–69 |
| Green Bay | ||||
| Maddy Skorupski | 4.2 | 71% | +15 | 71–65 |
| Elisa Mevius | 3.2 | 67% | +11 | 71–66 |
| Meghan Schultz | 2.5 | 65% | +9 | 70–66 |
| Kristina Ouimette | 1.6 | 62% | +6 | 70–67 |
Change is in Wisconsin's win chance, in points. Scores read Wisconsin, then Green Bay. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Wisconsin 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 86.8 and allowing 53.8
Green Bay 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 66-75at Illinois St
- Nov 7W 82-48vs Loyola Chicago
- Nov 3L 60-76at Duke
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 69.3 and allowing 66.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Wisconsin | Green Bay | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.8 41st | 98.5 86th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 85.3 58th | 86.5 62nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 129th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.7% 29th | 46.4% 124th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.9% 144th | 45.6% 186th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.0% 58th | 21.2% 26th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 192nd | 30.6% 295th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 343rd | 0.24 30th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Wisconsin 33, Green Bay 32
- First-half margin
- Wisconsin by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.7
- Projected second half
- Wisconsin 36, Green Bay 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Wisconsin, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.2 scored, 26.0 allowed
- Green Bay, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Wisconsin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addie DealG | 26 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Alicia CourthiauG | 25 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Teagan MallegniG | 25 | 13.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Adaline ShepleeG | 23 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Laci SteeleG | 21 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Shay BollinG | 20 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Nikki KersteinPG | 19 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 39% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Caia RoseG | 18 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
Green Bay
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddy SkorupskiG | 36 | 16.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 5+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Elisa MeviusG | 32 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Kristina OuimetteG | 27 | 9.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jorey BuwaldaF | 21 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Maren WestinG | 20 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Meghan SchultzF | 18 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
| McKenna JohnsonG | 18 | 7.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Gracie GrzeskF | 17 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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