Who will win FAU vs FGCU?
The model gives Florida Gulf Coast a 74% chance to beat Florida Atlantic, with a projected score of FGCU 67, FAU 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FGCU | |||||
| LightbourneG · 22 min | 9.3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 10+ 43% | |
| ZeinstraG · 28 min | 8.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 10+ 37% | |
| DouglasG · 25 min | 8.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 10+ 36% | |
| RolleG · 24 min | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 31% | |
 FAU | |||||
| RodgersG · 20 min | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 50% | |
| HouseyG · 26 min | 8.9 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 10+ 40% | |
| TuthillG · 27 min | 7.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 5+ 68% | |
| LerouxG · 21 min | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lily Zeinstra: FAU 31%FGCU 69%
The white mark is the call with her: FGCU 74%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | FGCU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FGCU | ||||
| Lily Zeinstra | 1.8 | 69% | −5 | 60–66 |
| Sinai Douglas | 1.6 | 69% | −5 | 60–66 |
| Eve Alexander | 1.3 | 70% | −4 | 59–66 |
| Denika Lightbourne | 1.3 | 70% | −4 | 59–66 |
| FAU | ||||
| Vivian Onugha | 1.2 | 77% | +3 | 58–67 |
| Grace Carstensen | 0.9 | 76% | +2 | 58–67 |
| Madi Gewirtz | 0.9 | 76% | +2 | 58–67 |
| Skyla Tuthill | 0.9 | 76% | +2 | 58–67 |
Change is in FGCU's win chance, in points. Scores read FAU, then FGCU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
FAU 2-2LWLW
- Nov 11W 85-57vs South AlabamaCovered −9.5 · Over 131.5
- Nov 8L 56-78vs Duke
- Nov 7W 68-28vs Kennesaw St
- Nov 2L 48-75at Miami
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 64.2 and allowing 59.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
FGCU 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 99-31vs Ave Maria
- Nov 7W 89-59vs Arkansas St
- Nov 3L 50-79at Indiana
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 79.3 and allowing 56.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FAU | FGCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.7 183rd | 92.8 140th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.0 95th | 88.5 85th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 161st | 45.3% 187th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.0% 44th | 44.3% 112th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.3% 253rd | 23.7% 200th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 199th | 32.6% 194th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 319th | 0.22 98th |
The widest gap: FGCU's defense (85th) against FAU's offense (183rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- FAU 27, FGCU 32
- First-half margin
- FGCU by 4.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.5
- Projected second half
- FAU 31, FGCU 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- FAU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 28.5 allowed
- FGCU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 22.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
FAU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyla TuthillG | 27 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ ast 59% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jaelynn HouseyG | 26 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Juju LerouxG | 21 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Mani PiljevicG | 21 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Mia JordanF | 20 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Erin RodgersG | 20 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 51% to play · 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jazzy GipsonG | 20 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Grace CarstensenG | 19 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 32% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
Missed the last game: Erin Rodgers (21 min a game).
FGCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily ZeinstraG | 28 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Karina GordonG | 26 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Sinai DouglasG | 25 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Cerina RolleG | 24 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Denika LightbourneG | 22 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Amelia HobsonG | 21 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Ari TurlaG | 15 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jalei PillowF | 14 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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