Who won Duke vs FAU?
Final: Duke 78, Florida Atlantic 56. Before tip-off the model gave Duke a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 30.6 points for Duke. Autumn Fleary scored 14 for Duke; Erin Rodgers had 11 for FAU.
Prediction logged before tip-off; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Toby Fournier: Duke 97%FAU 3%
The white mark is the call with her: Duke 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Duke without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duke | ||||
| Toby Fournier | 6.1 | 97% | −2 | 76–51 |
| Delaney Thomas | 5.5 | 97% | −2 | 76–51 |
| Aaliyah Crump | 5.3 | 97% | −2 | 76–51 |
| Riley Nelson | 4.5 | 98% | −1 | 77–51 |
 FAU | ||||
| Vivian Onugha | 1.2 | 99% | 0 | 79–48 |
| Grace Carstensen | 0.9 | 99% | 0 | 79–48 |
| Madi Gewirtz | 0.9 | 99% | 0 | 79–48 |
| Skyla Tuthill | 0.9 | 99% | 0 | 79–48 |
Change is in Duke's win chance, in points. Scores read Duke, then FAU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Duke | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.2 17th | 89.7 183rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 73.4 5th | 89.0 95th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 23rd | 45.6% 161st |
| Opponents' shooting | 40.8% 10th | 43.0% 44th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.7% 45th | 24.3% 253rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.9% 50th | 32.5% 199th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 284th | 0.19 319th |
The widest gap: Duke's defense (5th) against FAU's offense (183rd), of 363 teams.
First half
Duke led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.6 points and the total by 0.3.
- At halftime
- Duke 37, FAU 23
- Projected halftime score
- Duke 39, FAU 21
- First-half margin
- Duke by 17.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Duke, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 33.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
- FAU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 27.0 scored, 24.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Duke
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autumn FlearyG | 27 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Riley NelsonG | 26 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaliyah CrumpG | 24 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Bella FlemingsG | 24 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
| Delaney ThomasF | 21 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Toby FournierF | 19 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan WoodF | 18 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Arianna RobersonC | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Emma KoabelG | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
FAU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaelynn HouseyG | 27 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Skyla TuthillG | 25 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Erin RodgersG | 22 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Juju LerouxG | 21 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jazzy GipsonG | 20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Vivian OnughaF | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keke ButlerG | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Grace CarstensenG | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Mia JordanF | 16 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
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