Who will win Marshall vs Duke?
The model gives Duke a >99% chance to beat Marshall, with a projected score of Duke 84, Marshall 50.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duke | |||||
| FournierF · 22 min | 15.4 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 15+ 51% | |
| CrumpG · 23 min | 11.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| NelsonG · 24 min | 9.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 10+ 45% | |
| ThomasF · 23 min | 9.3 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 43% | |
 Marshall | |||||
| OlsonG · 28 min | 9.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 46% | |
| GallagherG · 28 min | 8.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 35% | |
| ChesterfieldF · 23 min | 6.6 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 5+ 61% | |
| MoodyF · 19 min | 6.6 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Toby Fournier: Marshall 1%Duke 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Duke >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Duke without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | ||||
| Toby Fournier | 6.1 | 99% | −1 | 53–81 |
| Delaney Thomas | 5.5 | 99% | −1 | 52–81 |
| Aaliyah Crump | 5.3 | 99% | −1 | 52–81 |
| Riley Nelson | 4.5 | 99% | −1 | 52–81 |
| Marshall | ||||
| Ni'Kiah Chesterfield | 2.0 | >99% | 0 | 49–85 |
| Olivia Olson | 1.9 | >99% | 0 | 49–85 |
| Maddie Moody | 1.5 | >99% | 0 | 49–84 |
| Kassie Ingram | 1.4 | >99% | 0 | 49–84 |
Change is in Duke's win chance, in points. Scores read Marshall, then Duke. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Marshall 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 60.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marshall | Duke | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.9 117th | 111.2 17th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.0 152nd | 73.4 5th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.2% 130th | 49.1% 23rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.8% 37th | 40.8% 10th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.6% 268th | 21.7% 45th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 100th | 35.9% 50th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 19th | 0.20 284th |
The widest gap: Duke's offense (17th) against Marshall's defense (152nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Marshall 22, Duke 41
- First-half margin
- Duke by 19.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.2
- Projected second half
- Marshall 28, Duke 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Marshall, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 26.8 allowed
- Duke, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.3 scored, 22.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Marshall
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassie GallagherG | 28 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Olivia OlsonG | 28 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Kassie IngramG | 25 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ni'Kiah ChesterfieldF | 23 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Emily BrattonG | 21 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Maddie MoodyF | 19 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 44% | |||||
| Paris GilmoreG | 17 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 31% to play · 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Anaya HarrisG | 16 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Missed the last game: Paris Gilmore (20 min a game) and Leyocha Marigney (15 min a game).
Duke
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley NelsonG | 24 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Aaliyah CrumpG | 23 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Delaney ThomasF | 23 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Toby FournierF | 22 | 15.4 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Autumn FlearyG | 22 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Bella FlemingsG | 21 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Arianna RobersonC | 18 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Jordan WoodF | 15 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Emilee Skinner (16 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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