Who will win Fordham vs Duke?
The model gives Duke a >99% chance to beat Fordham, with a projected score of Duke 86, Fordham 45.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duke | |||||
| FournierF · 22 min | 15.8 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 15+ 54% | |
| CrumpG · 23 min | 11.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 10+ 57% | |
| NelsonG · 24 min | 9.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 10+ 47% | |
| ThomasF · 23 min | 9.5 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 45% | |
 Fordham | |||||
| EdwardsG · 30 min | 9.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 44% | |
| SirtautaiteF · 24 min | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 10+ 41% | |
| EasleyG · 26 min | 7.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 5+ 66% | |
| KulykG · 18 min | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Toby Fournier: Fordham <1%Duke >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Duke >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Duke without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | ||||
| Toby Fournier | 6.1 | >99% | 0 | 48–83 |
| Delaney Thomas | 5.5 | >99% | 0 | 48–83 |
| Aaliyah Crump | 5.3 | >99% | 0 | 48–83 |
| Riley Nelson | 4.5 | >99% | 0 | 47–83 |
| Fordham | ||||
| Olivia Kulyk | 1.5 | >99% | 0 | 44–86 |
| Ugne Sirtautaite | 1.0 | >99% | 0 | 44–86 |
Change is in Duke's win chance, in points. Scores read Fordham, then Duke. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fordham | Duke | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.4 228th | 111.2 17th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.4 179th | 73.4 5th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 67th | 49.1% 23rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.6% 181st | 40.8% 10th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.8% 272nd | 21.7% 45th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 176th | 35.9% 50th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 61st | 0.20 284th |
The widest gap: Duke's defense (5th) against Fordham's offense (228th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Fordham 19, Duke 43
- First-half margin
- Duke by 23.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.9
- Projected second half
- Fordham 26, Duke 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Fordham, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 39.0 scored, 30.8 allowed
- Duke, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.3 scored, 22.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Fordham
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakresha EdwardsG | 30 | 9.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Carryn EasleyG | 26 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Anastasija VeljovicG | 24 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Ugne SirtautaiteF | 24 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 48% | |||||
| Zala SrotF | 22 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Caitlyn MartinG | 20 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 34% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Olivia KulykG | 18 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Precious OmosholaF | 15 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 57% | |||||
Duke
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley NelsonG | 24 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Aaliyah CrumpG | 23 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Delaney ThomasF | 23 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Toby FournierF | 22 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Autumn FlearyG | 22 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Bella FlemingsG | 21 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Arianna RobersonC | 18 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Jordan WoodF | 15 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Emilee Skinner (16 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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