Georgetown at NC State
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Reynolds Coliseum. Georgetown our rank 83 · 3-1; NC State our rank 22 · 3-1.
Who will win Georgetown vs NC State?
The model gives NC State a 93% chance to beat Georgetown, with a projected score of NC State 80, Georgetown 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | |||||
| PierreF · 31 min | 20.8 | 9.9 | 1.3 | 20+ 54% | |
| BrooksG · 23 min | 13.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 15+ 40% | |
| WootenG · 33 min | 10.5 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 10+ 52% | |
| LunanG · 26 min | 8.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 34% | |
| Georgetown | |||||
| AgubataG · 22 min | 11.3 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 58% | |
| MillerG · 25 min | 10.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| ByarsF · 28 min | 8.7 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 39% | |
| BartholomewG · 21 min | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Khamil Pierre: Georgetown 17%NC State 83%
The white mark is the call with her: NC State 93%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | NC State without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | ||||
| Khamil Pierre | 6.5 | 83% | −10 | 65–77 |
| Desiree Wooten | 4.9 | 86% | −7 | 64–78 |
| Qadence Samuels | 3.5 | 89% | −4 | 64–78 |
| Ky'She Lunan | 3.1 | 89% | −4 | 64–79 |
| Georgetown | ||||
| Destiny Agubata | 2.5 | 96% | +3 | 61–81 |
| Johnea Donahue | 2.5 | 96% | +3 | 61–81 |
| Khia Miller | 2.2 | 95% | +2 | 61–81 |
| Brianna Byars | 1.8 | 95% | +2 | 61–81 |
Change is in NC State's win chance, in points. Scores read Georgetown, then NC State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Georgetown 3-1WWWL
- Nov 11L 74-78at G Washington
- Nov 8W 97-37vs Saint Peter's
- Nov 5W 75-65vs American
- Nov 2W 84-47vs Delaware St
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 82.5 and allowing 56.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Georgetown | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.7 73rd | 110.7 20th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.2 112th | 81.9 35th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 72.8 110th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.7% 60th | 47.4% 75th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.5% 242nd | 46.2% 228th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.7% 110th | 20.0% 5th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.8% 53rd | 33.4% 148th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 14th | 0.21 178th |
The widest gap: NC State's offense (20th) against Georgetown's defense (112th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Georgetown 28, NC State 39
- First-half margin
- NC State by 10.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.4
- Projected second half
- Georgetown 34, NC State 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Georgetown, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 45.2 scored, 29.8 allowed
- NC State, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 39.8 scored, 30.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Georgetown
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brianna ByarsF | 28 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Johnea DonahueG | 27 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Khia MillerG | 25 | 10.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Amanda AjobieweG | 22 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Destiny AgubataG | 22 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Winner BartholomewG | 21 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Kendall PerryG | 17 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Stella LockhartF | 15 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
NC State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desiree WootenG | 33 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Khamil PierreF | 31 | 20.8 | 9.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 20+ pts 54% · 10+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Qadence SamuelsG | 28 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Ky'She LunanG | 26 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Zoe BrooksG | 23 | 13.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| 49% to play · 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Khady LeyeF | 22 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Kamora PruittG | 17 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Annsley TrivetteF | 14 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
Missed the last game: Zoe Brooks (25 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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