Who will win Fairfield vs Oregon?
The model gives Oregon a 81% chance to beat Fairfield, with a projected score of Oregon 77, Fairfield 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon | |||||
| EtuteF · 27 min | 16.0 | 10.9 | 1.8 | 15+ 55% | |
| FisoG · 33 min | 15.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 15+ 55% | |
| LongG · 29 min | 10.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| HeyerF · 30 min | 10.2 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 49% | |
 Fairfield | |||||
| L'AmoreauxG · 36 min | 18.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 20+ 40% | |
| AndersenF · 31 min | 12.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 15+ 35% | |
| CoeF · 24 min | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 10+ 47% | |
| McCarthyF · 18 min | 8.5 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 37% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ehis Etute: Fairfield 34%Oregon 66%
The white mark is the call with her: Oregon 81%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oregon without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | ||||
| Ehis Etute | 5.7 | 66% | −15 | 69–75 |
| Katie Fiso | 5.2 | 68% | −13 | 69–75 |
| Ari Long | 3.9 | 71% | −10 | 69–75 |
| Mallory Heyer | 3.9 | 71% | −10 | 69–75 |
| Fairfield | ||||
| Kaety L'Amoreaux | 5.5 | 91% | +10 | 64–80 |
| Meghan Andersen | 3.9 | 88% | +7 | 65–79 |
| Cyanne Coe | 3.3 | 87% | +6 | 65–79 |
| Jillian Huerter | 2.0 | 85% | +4 | 66–78 |
Change is in Oregon's win chance, in points. Scores read Fairfield, then Oregon. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Fairfield 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 69-67at Seton Hall
- Nov 8W 74-50vs Vermont
- Nov 6W 90-63vs Binghamton
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 77.7 and allowing 60.0
Oregon 3-1WWLW
- Nov 11W 81-56at Vermont
- Nov 9L 74-81at Grand CanyonDidn't cover −9.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 6W 64-57vs Washington St
- Nov 2W 87-54vs Hawai'i
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 76.5 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fairfield | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.2 37th | 108.1 24th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 87.9 73rd | 83.7 51st |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 225th | 72.4 144th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.2% 9th | 47.2% 82nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.0% 314th | 44.1% 96th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.2% 74th | 21.6% 37th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 197th | 35.9% 52nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 303rd | 0.20 244th |
The widest gap: Oregon's offense (24th) against Fairfield's defense (73rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Fairfield 31, Oregon 37
- First-half margin
- Oregon by 6.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.3
- Projected second half
- Fairfield 36, Oregon 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Fairfield, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 27.3 allowed
- Oregon, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 33.8 scored, 37.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Fairfield
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaety L'AmoreauxG | 36 | 18.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 5+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Meghan AndersenF | 31 | 12.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Paige KohlerG | 25 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jillian HuerterG | 24 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Cyanne CoeF | 24 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Lana McCarthyF | 18 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Milou van VlietF | 17 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Addison RhodesG | 14 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Missed the last game: Milou van Vliet (21 min a game).
Oregon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie FisoG | 33 | 15.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mallory HeyerF | 30 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ari LongG | 29 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Ehis EtuteF | 27 | 16.0 | 10.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 11+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Avary CainG | 24 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Brooklynn HaywoodG | 21 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Kennedy HolmanG | 10 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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