Who will win Oregon vs Maine?
The model gives Oregon a 94% chance to beat Maine, with a projected score of Oregon 81, Maine 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon | |||||
| EtuteF · 27 min | 16.1 | 11.0 | 1.8 | 15+ 56% | |
| FisoG · 31 min | 15.8 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 15+ 54% | |
| LongG · 28 min | 10.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 52% | |
| HeyerF · 29 min | 10.2 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 49% | |
 Maine | |||||
| GruberC · 25 min | 10.8 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 54% | |
| WoodsG · 32 min | 9.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 46% | |
| FitzpatrickG · 30 min | 9.3 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| SainF · 25 min | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ehis Etute: Oregon 87%Maine 13%
The white mark is the call with her: Oregon 94%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oregon without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | ||||
| Ehis Etute | 5.7 | 87% | −7 | 78–63 |
| Katie Fiso | 5.2 | 88% | −6 | 78–63 |
| Ari Long | 3.9 | 90% | −4 | 79–63 |
| Mallory Heyer | 3.9 | 90% | −4 | 79–63 |
| Maine | ||||
| Lizzy Gruber | 1.6 | 96% | +2 | 81–60 |
| Kaliyah Sain | 0.8 | 95% | +1 | 81–60 |
Change is in Oregon's win chance, in points. Scores read Oregon, then Maine. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oregon 3-1WWLW
- Nov 11W 81-56at Vermont
- Nov 9L 74-81at Grand CanyonDidn't cover −9.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 6W 64-57vs Washington St
- Nov 2W 87-54vs Hawai'i
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 76.5 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oregon | Maine | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.1 24th | 92.7 141st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 83.7 51st | 98.3 261st |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 144th | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 82nd | 48.5% 35th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 96th | 46.0% 215th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.6% 37th | 23.3% 165th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.9% 52nd | 31.4% 259th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 244th | 0.21 175th |
The widest gap: Oregon's offense (24th) against Maine's defense (261st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oregon 39, Maine 28
- First-half margin
- Oregon by 11.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.9
- Projected second half
- Oregon 41, Maine 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oregon, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 33.8 scored, 37.5 allowed
- Maine, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 37.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oregon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie FisoG | 31 | 15.8 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mallory HeyerF | 29 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ari LongG | 28 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Ehis EtuteF | 27 | 16.1 | 11.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 11+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Avary CainG | 24 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Brooklynn HaywoodG | 21 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Kennedy HolmanG | 11 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Filippa TillianderF | 10 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3+ reb 43% | |||||
Maine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lala WoodsG | 32 | 9.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Maddie FitzpatrickG | 30 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Olivia AlvarezG | 28 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kaliyah SainF | 25 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Lizzy GruberC | 25 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Emmie Streams-StevensG | 15 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 2+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Bailey BreenF | 12 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Abby PriceG | 12 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 28% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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