Who will win Utah vs Boise St?
The model gives Utah a 66% chance to beat Boise State, with a projected score of Utah 73, Boise St 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Utah | |||||
| GirardiG · 30 min | 16.0 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 15+ 55% | |
| EvansF · 30 min | 8.9 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 10+ 40% | |
| JonesG · 24 min | 8.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 37% | |
| BradleyF · 19 min | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 33% | |
 Boise St | |||||
| HuttonF · 22 min | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 42% | |
| AndersonG · 25 min | 8.3 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 10+ 36% | |
| QuinnG · 22 min | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 5+ 65% | |
| FosterG · 21 min | 7.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lena Girardi: Utah 55%Boise St 45%
The white mark is the call with her: Utah 66%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Utah without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | ||||
| Lena Girardi | 3.3 | 55% | −11 | 71–70 |
| Filipa Barros | 3.2 | 56% | −10 | 71–69 |
| Chyra Evans | 2.9 | 57% | −9 | 71–69 |
| Laia Conesa | 1.9 | 60% | −6 | 72–69 |
| Boise St | ||||
| Libby Hutton | 1.7 | 71% | +5 | 74–67 |
| Grace Foster | 1.1 | 69% | +3 | 73–67 |
| CJ Latta | 0.9 | 68% | +2 | 73–67 |
Change is in Utah's win chance, in points. Scores read Utah, then Boise St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Utah 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 65-47vs Bethune
- Nov 6W 72-63vs Colorado St
- Nov 3W 76-67vs E Washington
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 71.0 and allowing 59.0
Boise St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 82-59vs CSU Northridge
- Nov 6W 83-68vs Portland St
- Nov 2W 84-48vs Bushnell
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 58.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Utah | Boise St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.7 68th | 95.7 107th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.5 100th | 97.4 246th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.8% 103rd | 48.2% 44th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.2% 51st | 45.2% 158th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 153rd | 22.3% 83rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.9% 286th | 31.9% 231st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 161st | 0.20 251st |
The widest gap: Utah's offense (68th) against Boise St's defense (246th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Utah 35, Boise St 32
- First-half margin
- Utah by 2.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.8
- Projected second half
- Utah 38, Boise St 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Utah, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
- Boise St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.3 scored, 29.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Utah
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lena GirardiG | 30 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Chyra EvansF | 30 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Filipa BarrosG | 30 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 8+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Laia ConesaG | 29 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Peyton JonesG | 24 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Olivia BradleyF | 19 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 49% to play · 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Rylee LittleF | 17 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Evelina OttoF | 17 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Olivia Bradley (23 min a game).
Boise St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zia-Daye AndersonG | 25 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Libby HuttonF | 22 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Mason QuinnG | 22 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Grace FosterG | 21 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Morgan MaldonadoG | 21 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| CJ LattaG | 19 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Milly SharpG | 14 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Izzie HarmsF | 14 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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