Pacific at CA Baptist
Women's · Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center. Pacific our rank 155 · 1-1; CA Baptist our rank 119 · 2-0.
Who will win Pacific vs CA Baptist?
The model gives California Baptist a 74% chance to beat Pacific, with a projected score of CA Baptist 74, Pacific 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Baptist | |||||
| OlsenG · 28 min | 15.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 15+ 50% | |
| BriggsG · 26 min | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 5+ 68% | |
| BreceljF · 17 min | 7.2 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 5+ 67% | |
| WillardsonF · 14 min | 6.7 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 5+ 63% | |
| Pacific | |||||
| MindermannG · 28 min | 11.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| RiveraG · 24 min | 10.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 52% | |
| NworieC · 23 min | 8.5 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 10+ 37% | |
| DyerG · 20 min | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Chloe Briggs: Pacific 33%CA Baptist 67%
The white mark is the call with her: CA Baptist 74%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | CA Baptist without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Baptist | ||||
| Chloe Briggs | 2.7 | 67% | −7 | 67–73 |
| Lauren Olsen | 2.5 | 68% | −6 | 67–73 |
| Spela Brecelj | 1.4 | 70% | −4 | 67–74 |
| Paula Haw | 0.7 | 72% | −2 | 66–74 |
| Pacific | ||||
| Victoria Rivera | 1.8 | 78% | +4 | 65–75 |
| JoJo Nworie | 1.8 | 78% | +4 | 65–75 |
| Yana Karamfilova | 1.0 | 76% | +2 | 66–75 |
| Sophia Mindermann | 0.8 | 76% | +2 | 66–75 |
Change is in CA Baptist's win chance, in points. Scores read Pacific, then CA Baptist. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Pacific 1-1WL
- Nov 5L 54-75at Washington
- Nov 2W 105-42vs Simpson (CA)
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 79.5 and allowing 58.5
CA Baptist 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 68.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Pacific | CA Baptist | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.4 157th | 96.8 101st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.8 147th | 93.2 156th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 74.3 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.3% 187th | 47.6% 66th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.6% 129th | 43.6% 67th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 248th | 21.1% 23rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 194th | 36.7% 37th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 199th | 0.18 342nd |
The widest gap: CA Baptist's offense (101st) against Pacific's defense (147th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Pacific 31, CA Baptist 36
- First-half margin
- CA Baptist by 4.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.6
- Projected second half
- Pacific 35, CA Baptist 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Pacific, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.5 scored, 28.5 allowed
- CA Baptist, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 23.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Pacific
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia MindermannG | 28 | 11.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Stella SzaboG | 26 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Victoria RiveraG | 24 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| JoJo NworieC | 23 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Yana KaramfilovaF | 21 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Jordyn DyerG | 20 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| LaMiracle LebonF | 19 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Liv YergensenG | 16 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
CA Baptist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren OlsenG | 28 | 15.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Sofia AlonsoG | 26 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 50% · 5+ ast 48% | |||||
| Chloe BriggsG | 26 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Reyleigh HessF | 21 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Josie AgnewG | 20 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Spela BreceljF | 17 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| McKinley WillardsonF | 14 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Bella KlagesG | 13 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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