Princeton at Pepperdine
Women's · Friday, November 13, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Firestone Fieldhouse. Princeton our rank 47 · 4-0; Pepperdine our rank 146 · 2-1.
Who will win Princeton vs Pepperdine?
The model gives Princeton a 80% chance to beat Pepperdine, with a projected score of Princeton 71, Pepperdine 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Princeton | |||||
| TallF · 33 min | 20.1 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 20+ 50% | |
| BelkerG · 35 min | 14.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 15+ 47% | |
| HutchersonG · 32 min | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 10+ 58% | |
| CheaG · 33 min | 7.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 10+ 32% | |
| Pepperdine | |||||
| GuineyG · 32 min | 14.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 15+ 48% | |
| FalkG · 30 min | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 5+ 68% | |
| HarmonG · 26 min | 7.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 5+ 66% | |
| MendelsonC · 25 min | 6.7 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Fadima Tall: Princeton 66%Pepperdine 34%
The white mark is the call with her: Princeton 80%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Princeton without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Princeton | ||||
| Fadima Tall | 5.5 | 66% | −14 | 68–63 |
| Olivia Hutcherson | 4.0 | 70% | −10 | 69–62 |
| Skye Belker | 3.4 | 72% | −8 | 69–62 |
| Ashley Chea | 2.5 | 74% | −6 | 70–61 |
| Pepperdine | ||||
| Elli Guiney | 2.7 | 86% | +6 | 72–59 |
| Lina Falk | 1.5 | 83% | +3 | 72–59 |
| Taija Sta. Maria | 0.8 | 82% | +2 | 71–60 |
| Seleh Harmon | 0.8 | 82% | +2 | 71–60 |
Change is in Princeton's win chance, in points. Scores read Princeton, then Pepperdine. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Princeton 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 64.2
Pepperdine 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 83-65vs Cal State Dominguez Hills
- Nov 5L 54-58vs Santa Barbara
- Nov 2W 59-43at Portland St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 65.3 and allowing 55.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Princeton | Pepperdine | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.8 23rd | 88.2 214th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.0 108th | 88.2 80th |
| Possessions a game | 69.1 359th | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 62nd | 44.8% 222nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 134th | 40.6% 8th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.0% 132nd | 25.7% 309th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.3% 68th | 35.1% 75th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 63rd | 0.22 142nd |
The widest gap: Princeton's defense (108th) against Pepperdine's offense (214th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Princeton 34, Pepperdine 28
- First-half margin
- Princeton by 6.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.2
- Projected second half
- Princeton 37, Pepperdine 32
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Princeton, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 32.0 scored, 29.2 allowed
- Pepperdine, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 26.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Princeton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skye BelkerG | 35 | 14.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ashley CheaG | 33 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 55% | |||||
| Fadima TallF | 33 | 20.1 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 20+ pts 50% · 10+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Olivia HutchersonG | 32 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Grace O'SullivanG | 27 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Emily EadieF | 15 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 50% | |||||
| Cristina ParrellaG | 13 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
Pepperdine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elli GuineyG | 32 | 14.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Lina FalkG | 30 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Taija Sta. MariaG | 29 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Seleh HarmonG | 26 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Maggie MendelsonC | 25 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 8+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Keandra KooritsG | 18 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Zoe ShanahanF | 12 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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