Who will win Princeton vs UCLA?
The model gives UCLA a 94% chance to beat Princeton, with a projected score of UCLA 77, Princeton 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UCLA | |||||
| BettsF · 26 min | 11.6 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| GardinerF · 24 min | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 53% | |
| BrownF · 23 min | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 10+ 46% | |
| BransfordG · 26 min | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 44% | |
 Princeton | |||||
| TallF · 32 min | 16.4 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 15+ 57% | |
| BelkerG · 34 min | 11.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 10+ 62% | |
| HutchersonG · 31 min | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| CheaG · 32 min | 6.3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sienna Betts: Princeton 15%UCLA 85%
The white mark is the call with her: UCLA 94%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UCLA without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | ||||
| Sienna Betts | 5.8 | 85% | −9 | 61–74 |
| Donovyn Hunter | 5.0 | 87% | −7 | 60–74 |
| Addy Brown | 4.8 | 87% | −7 | 60–74 |
| Timea Gardiner | 4.8 | 87% | −7 | 60–74 |
| Princeton | ||||
| Fadima Tall | 5.5 | 98% | +4 | 55–79 |
| Olivia Hutcherson | 4.0 | 97% | +3 | 56–79 |
| Skye Belker | 3.4 | 96% | +2 | 56–78 |
| Ashley Chea | 2.5 | 96% | +2 | 57–78 |
Change is in UCLA's win chance, in points. Scores read Princeton, then UCLA. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Princeton 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 64.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Princeton | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.8 23rd | 111.7 15th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.0 108th | 72.8 4th |
| Possessions a game | 69.1 359th | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 62nd | 46.0% 142nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 134th | 41.2% 14th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.0% 132nd | 22.4% 90th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.3% 68th | 36.1% 46th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 63rd | 0.17 353rd |
The widest gap: UCLA's offense (15th) against Princeton's defense (108th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Princeton 27, UCLA 37
- First-half margin
- UCLA by 10.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.9
- Projected second half
- Princeton 31, UCLA 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Princeton, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 32.0 scored, 29.2 allowed
- UCLA, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.0 scored, 24.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Princeton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skye BelkerG | 34 | 11.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 40% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Ashley CheaG | 32 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Fadima TallF | 32 | 16.4 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 8+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Olivia HutchersonG | 31 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Grace O'SullivanG | 26 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Emily EadieF | 16 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
| Cristina ParrellaG | 14 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
UCLA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovyn HunterG | 28 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Sienna BettsF | 26 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| KK BransfordG | 26 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Timea GardinerF | 24 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Elina AarnisaloG | 24 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 46% to play · 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Addy BrownF | 23 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Somto OkaforG | 22 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Bonnie DeasG | 18 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Elina Aarnisalo (28 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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