Who will win Cal Poly vs UCLA?
The model gives UCLA a >99% chance to beat Cal Poly, with a projected score of UCLA 87, Cal Poly 38.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UCLA | |||||
| BettsF · 25 min | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 15+ 34% | |
| GardinerF · 23 min | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 61% | |
| BrownF · 22 min | 10.6 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 10+ 53% | |
| BransfordG · 25 min | 10.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 50% | |
 Cal Poly | |||||
| UlmerF · 21 min | 5.9 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 5+ 55% | |
| TauroG · 23 min | 5.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5+ 54% | |
| LeeG · 28 min | 5.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5+ 50% | |
| ButcherG · 26 min | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 5+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sienna Betts: Cal Poly <1%UCLA >99%
The white mark is the call with her: UCLA >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UCLA without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | ||||
| Sienna Betts | 5.8 | >99% | 0 | 41–84 |
| Donovyn Hunter | 5.0 | >99% | 0 | 41–85 |
| Addy Brown | 4.8 | >99% | 0 | 41–85 |
| Timea Gardiner | 4.8 | >99% | 0 | 41–85 |
Change is in UCLA's win chance, in points. Scores read Cal Poly, then UCLA. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Cal Poly 3-1WWLW
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 62.0 and allowing 47.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cal Poly | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.7 308th | 111.7 15th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.4 290th | 72.8 4th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 272nd | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 167th | 46.0% 142nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.6% 185th | 41.2% 14th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.6% 266th | 22.4% 90th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.6% 296th | 36.1% 46th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 134th | 0.17 353rd |
The widest gap: UCLA's defense (4th) against Cal Poly's offense (308th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Cal Poly 16, UCLA 44
- First-half margin
- UCLA by 28.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.6
- Projected second half
- Cal Poly 23, UCLA 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Cal Poly, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 30.5 scored, 24.2 allowed
- UCLA, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.0 scored, 24.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Cal Poly
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby RobinsonG | 28 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Sumer LeeG | 28 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Madison ButcherG | 26 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Maddy TauroG | 23 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Dessi UlmerF | 21 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Ysabella Von SeiplerG | 20 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Mecca AlexanderG | 18 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 27% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Avery KnappF | 17 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
UCLA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovyn HunterG | 26 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Sienna BettsF | 25 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| KK BransfordG | 25 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Timea GardinerF | 23 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Elina AarnisaloG | 22 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| 46% to play · 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Addy BrownF | 22 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 7+ reb 54% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Somto OkaforG | 22 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Bonnie DeasG | 18 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Missed the last game: Elina Aarnisalo (28 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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