Cal Poly at Washington
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Alaska Airlines Arena. Cal Poly our rank 313 · 3-1; Washington AP 16, our rank 35 · 3-0.
Who will win Cal Poly vs Washington?
The model gives Washington a >99% chance to beat Cal Poly, with a projected score of Washington 82, Cal Poly 44.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | |||||
| HowellG · 27 min | 15.7 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 15+ 53% | |
| SellersG · 26 min | 14.8 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 15+ 48% | |
| McGaughyF · 25 min | 11.0 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| TryggerF · 22 min | 8.9 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 10+ 40% | |
| Cal Poly | |||||
| UlmerF · 21 min | 6.5 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 5+ 61% | |
| TauroG · 23 min | 6.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5+ 59% | |
| LeeG · 28 min | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 5+ 56% | |
| ButcherG · 26 min | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 5+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Avery Howell: Cal Poly <1%Washington >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Washington >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Washington without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | ||||
| Avery Howell | 5.2 | >99% | 0 | 47–79 |
| Sayvia Sellers | 4.8 | >99% | 0 | 46–79 |
| Brynn McGaughy | 3.6 | >99% | 0 | 46–80 |
| Tilda Trygger | 3.3 | >99% | 0 | 46–80 |
Change is in Washington's win chance, in points. Scores read Cal Poly, then Washington. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Cal Poly 3-1WWLW
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 62.0 and allowing 47.5
Washington 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 85-51vs BakersfieldDidn't cover −42.5 · Over 131.5
- Nov 5W 75-54vs Pacific
- Nov 2W 79-63vs UC San Diego
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.7 and allowing 56.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cal Poly | Washington | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.7 308th | 103.8 43rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.4 290th | 80.1 20th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 272nd | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 167th | 47.3% 77th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.6% 185th | 45.7% 191st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.6% 266th | 24.0% 226th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.6% 296th | 32.0% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 134th | 0.22 131st |
The widest gap: Washington's defense (20th) against Cal Poly's offense (308th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Cal Poly 19, Washington 41
- First-half margin
- Washington by 21.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.7
- Projected second half
- Cal Poly 25, Washington 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Cal Poly, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 30.5 scored, 24.2 allowed
- Washington, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 25.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Cal Poly
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby RobinsonG | 28 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Sumer LeeG | 28 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Madison ButcherG | 26 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Maddy TauroG | 23 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Dessi UlmerF | 21 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Ysabella Von SeiplerG | 20 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Mecca AlexanderG | 18 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Avery KnappF | 17 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 52% | |||||
Washington
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery HowellG | 27 | 15.7 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 45% · 3+ threes 45% | |||||
| Sayvia SellersG | 26 | 14.8 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 58% · 6+ ast 46% | |||||
| Devin CoppingerG | 25 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Brynn McGaughyF | 25 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Tilda TryggerF | 22 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Amayah GarciaG | 19 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Brooke CarlsonG | 18 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kaelyn CarrollF | 14 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Missed the last game: Kaelyn Carroll (18 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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